Tuần – Week: 21 – 31/12/2020

<For English version, please scroll down…>

Tùy biến thích nghi với Covid, Việt Nam được nhìn nhận đã thành công 2020; tương lai năm 2021 sẽ ra sao khi sẽ phải đối mặt với nhiều yếu tố bất ngờ, kịch bản nào cho Việt Nam bước vào 2021?

Các sự kiện chính – Main events:

Khoảng cuối tháng 11, người dân khu vực đường Trần Đình Xu và Nguyễn Cư Trinh (quận 1) không khỏi tò mò khi thấy ông Tây cao lớn, đứng sau xe đẩy nhỏ ghi dòng chữ “chuối chiên, thơm chiên” giá 10.000 đồng. Fabrice (1971), du khách Pháp chưa muốn về nước vì Covid-19, là chủ nhân xe bánh chiên. Mỗi ngày từ 5h – 6h, ông lại lọ mọ đẩy xe ra vỉa hè, vào cửa hàng tiện lợi và ra chợ gần đó mua nguyên liệu. Khoảng 10h – 11h, ông dọn hàng về. Lý do ông Tây chỉ bán buổi sáng là vì ông cho rằng món này có thể dùng làm điểm tâm nhẹ cho học sinh, người đi làm; vả lại buổi chiều ở quanh đây bán nhiều món ăn khác, thực khách sẽ không chú ý nhiều tới xe bánh chiên nhỏ.

Năm 2020, kinh tế Việt Nam tăng trưởng GDP 2,91%. Đây là mức tăng thấp nhất trong thập kỷ gần đây của Việt Nam nhưng là thành công lớn trong bối cảnh dịch Covid-19 diễn biến phức tạp nhiều nước khu vực và thế giới rơi vào suy thoái; có thể nói, Việt Nam vừa kiểm soát vững chắc dịch bệnh trong nước, vừa duy trì tăng trưởng kinh tế dương, điều không nhiều nền kinh tế làm được trong năm 2020.

Nhưng, Covid-19 cũng khiến nhiều nghịch lý về giá tài sản xuất hiện, giá bán – thuê nhà cũng ngược chiều nhau trên thị trường sơ cấp và thứ cấp.

Tại sao nó ảnh hưởng – Why were it affected:

Ý tưởng bán bánh chiên được vị khách người Pháp cho rằng xuất phát từ Covid-19. Sau thời gian giãn cách xã hội, ông Fabrice ra ngoài nhiều hơn vì đã rất bí bách khi ở trong khách sạn suốt thời gian dài. Du khách Pháp này nhập cảnh Việt Nam vào 16/1/2020, thị thực có hạn đến 15/4/2020, và nằm trong khoảng 3.000 du khách nước ngoài kẹt tại Việt Nam tính đến tháng 4/2020. Ông Fabrice là một trong nhiều người chọn cách gia hạn thị thực lưu trú ở Việt Nam thay vì trở về quê hương, nơi đang căng thẳng giữa tâm dịch. Trên xe đẩy gồm bếp ga nhỏ, chậu bột, khay đựng bánh chín, thớt ép chuối, chuối và thơm (dứa) tươi. Dứa được cắt sẵn thành khoanh, đựng trong hộp ủ chút đường qua đêm, và một số dụng cụ nấu nướng như dao, phớ trộn bột, nĩa… Đặc biệt, nguyên liệu chế biến của nam du khách không thể thiếu bơ nhạt – thay dầu chiên. “Bánh chiên này có mùi thơm hơn, và không ngập thấm dầu mỡ như bánh chuối kiểu Việt Nam“, một thực khách từng ăn thử, nhận xét. Những ngày mới bán, phải có khách đến mua, ông Fabrice mới bắt đầu nhúng chuối, thơm vào chậu bột và chiên vàng. Mất ít nhất 5 phút để bánh chín. Lỡ tay áo bột dày quá, có khi ông loay hoay tận 10 phút. Sợ khách đợi lâu, vừa làm bánh ông vừa chắp hai tay về phía thực khách và cười, tỏ ý muốn họ thông cảm. Người Việt thích ăn ngọt, họ thường góp ý muốn thêm ngọt vào bánh, nghe thế ông Fabrice chỉ cười. Ông nói rằng sẽ không thay đổi công thức ban đầu của mình, vì không thể làm vừa lòng khẩu vị của mỗi người một ý. “Nếu bánh của tôi làm hài lòng thực khách, họ sẽ quay lại mua, và dạo này tôi có đông khách lắm“, Fabrice khoe.

Kết quả tăng trưởng kinh tế vừa qua có được nhờ dịch bệnh trong nước được kiểm soát vững chắc, giảm thiểu số người chết, kinh tế, xã hội, an ninh quốc phòng đạt được nhều kết quả tích cực. Theo Thủ tướng, thành quả chống dịch là sự nỗ lực của hệ thống chính trị và toàn dân khi Việt Nam được đánh giá là mô hình chống Covid-19 hiệu quả trên thế giới. Năm 2021, Chính phủ đặt mục tiêu GDP tăng trưởng 6,5%. Nhìn lại 5 năm qua, Việt Nam tạo ra hơn 1.200 tỷ USD giá trị GDP. Riêng năm 2020, Việt Nam tăng trưởng gần 3%; quy mô kinh tế đạt 340 tỷ USD, đứng trong top 40 nền kinh tế lớn nhất thế giới, tương đương và vượt qua một số nền kinh tế lớn trong khu vực, kể cả một số “con hổ” châu Á. Với tăng trưởng bình quân 6,8% giai đoạn 2016 – 2019, Việt Nam nằm trong top 10 nước tăng trưởng cao nhất thế giới. Thu ngân sách năm 2020 cơ bản đạt mục tiêu đề ra, chi ngân sách chặt chẽ, tiết kiệm, hiệu quả hơn. Trong 5 năm qua, Việt Nam tạo ra 8 triệu việc làm mới. Thu nhập bình quân hiện đạt 5.000 USD mỗi năm.

Bất chấp dịch bệnh khiến kinh tế khó khăn, nhiều ngành nghề điêu đứng trong năm 2020, giá nhà đất vẫn tăng vọt khiến nhiều chuyên gia quan ngại về nghịch lý bất thường này. Trong 12 tháng qua, giá chào bán nhà chung cư tại nhiều điểm nóng của TP HCM đã thiết lập mặt bằng giá mới kỷ lục. Theo khảo sát gần đây, tại TP Thủ Đức xuất hiện vùng giá căn hộ 60-90 triệu đồng mỗi m2, mức giá chưa từng có từ trước tới nay ở địa bàn này. Tại các huyện Bình Chánh, quận 12, căn hộ tiệm cận ngưỡng 40 triệu đồng mỗi m2, cũng là cột giá cao nhất vùng ven. Thậm chí nhà giá rẻ xếp hạng C, có giá trên dưới 25 triệu đồng mỗi m2 cũng đã bị đội lên vùng giá 30-35 triệu đồng mỗi m2. Trong khi đó, giá chào bán nhà liền thổ cũng leo thang giữa đại dịch. Theo Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) Việt Nam, giá bán nhà liền thổ trên thị trường sơ cấp xác lập kỷ lục mới với mức USD 5.277 (khoảng 123 triệu đồng)/ m2, tăng 35,9% theo năm. Giá bán nhà phố, biệt thự (nhà liền thổ) dự án trên thị trường sơ cấp ở Sài Gòn ghi nhận USD 5.277/ m2 đất, tăng 35,9% so với cùng kỳ năm 2019. Hiện nay thị trường bất động sản có nguồn cung thấp trong khi nhu cầu lại quá cao tạo ra khả năng tăng giá. Nguồn cung nhà ở hiện nay giảm rất mạnh và trong tương lai vẫn có xu hướng tiếp tục suy giảm do sự không thống nhất giữa các luật liên quan. Các sở ban ngành chỉ ký duyệt dự án khi đúng tất cả luật nhưng điều này khó đáp ứng. Nguyên nhân này khiến cho nguồn cung lao dốc gấp 10 lần trong khi nhu cầu vẫn rất lớn. Ngoài ra, các tác động của quy hoạch, hạ tầng và tâm lý đầu tư bất động sản của người Việt càng khiến giá nhà đất ngày càng leo thang. Vấn đề nan giải nhất hiện nay là giá nhà đất tăng cao khiến cho thị trường khó phát triển bền vững, tuy nhiên vẫn chưa có giải pháp cải thiện tình trạng này. Giá bán sơ cấp nhà chung cư tại một số khu vực ghi nhận mức tăng khá cao, trung bình 10-15% so với đầu năm 2020, sức tiêu thụ đạt gần 80% rổ hàng, sự tăng giá căn hộ trên thị trường sơ cấp do các chi phí đầu vào của dự án tăng cao và pháp lý dự án kéo dài dẫn đến chi phí tài chính bị đội lên đáng kể. Trong khi đó, mặt bằng giá nhà chung cư trên thị trường thứ cấp giảm nhẹ, mức giảm dao động trung bình 2-3% so với quý trước và giao dịch diễn ra trầm lắng do các nhà đầu tư mua đi bán lại gặp khó khăn về dòng tiền trong bối cảnh tâm lý thị trường xuống thấp giữa mùa dịch hoặc các nhà đầu tư thứ cấp có nhu cầu thu hồi dòng vốn để tái cấu trúc danh mục đầu tư. Đà giảm giá nhà trên thị trường thứ cấp chỉ dao động ở biên độ nhỏ và không đại diện cho toàn thị trường vì các giao dịch này diễn ra cục bộ, quy mô chưa lớn.

Xu hướng chính – Key trends:

Thực khách của Fabrice chủ yếu là người dân xung quanh, học sinh từ trường học gần đó, khách vãng lai ghé vào mua vì ông bán ngay trên vỉa hè. Một số cư dân nhận xét ông Tây này chưa từng gây mất trật tự công cộng, thân thiện với mọi người, thường được người khác mua giúp nguyên liệu hay đồ ăn. Một tiểu thương cho biết người dân cũng chỉ phản ánh chuyện ông hay cởi trần mỗi khi ngồi nghỉ ngơi, gây mất mỹ quan, và nhắc ông phải luôn mặc áo.

Thủ tướng chính phủ tại hội nghị trực tuyến Chính phủ với các địa phương, sáng 28/12 cũng chỉ ra bên cạnh những thành tựu đó, nhiều khó khăn như tăng trưởng chưa bền vững, chưa xứng với tiềm năng; mặt bằng thu nhập người dân còn thấp; công ăn việc làm cho người dân chưa đảm bảo; doanh nghiệp tư nhân, nhất là nhỏ và vừa còn khó khăn; chất lượng giáo dục, y tế còn bất cập… Việt Nam đang đối mặt với nhiều thách thức về biến đổi khí hậu như lũ chồng lũ, bão chồng bão ở miền Trung vừa qua; xâm nhập mặn ở Đồng bằng sông Cửu Long… Thời gian tới, Thủ tướng cũng chia sẻ mong muốn sẽ phủ bảo hiểm y tế đến tất cả người dân sớm nhất. Chính phủ hướng tới trẻ dưới 16 tuổi sẽ được khám chữa bệnh bằng bảo hiểm y tế hoàn toàn.

Trong năm 2020 giá thuê nhà phố mặt tiền tại TP HCM hiện giảm 25-40% so với trước Covid-19. Giá thuê chung cư giảm 15-20% so với cuối năm 2019. Giá thuê các tài sản thương mại, văn phòng giảm 25-50% tùy vị trí và mức độ ảnh hưởng của dịch bệnh đến tình hình kinh doanh ngắn hạn của khách thuê. Ghi nhận trong tháng 11/2020, nhiều tài sản vẫn duy trì đà giảm giá thuê tới cuối năm 2020. Điều đáng chú ý là giá chào bán các tài sản bao gồm nhà đất và chung cư vẫn không có dấu hiệu giảm nhiệt, mức tăng giá bất động sản liền thổ vẫn đạt 20-36% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái; riêng nhà chung cư tiếp tục thiết lập mặt bằng giá mới ở cả khu trung tâm lẫn vùng ven TP HCM. Nguyên nhân của nghịch lý này xuất phát từ việc thị trường bất động sản bất ngờ chịu tác động bởi đại dịch. Nhu cầu thuê bất động sản giảm sút do tác động của việc kinh doanh ảm đạm, khả năng chi trả bị suy yếu và dòng tiền của bên thuê gián đoạn đột ngột, dẫn đến giá thuê lao dốc. Trong khi đó, giá tài sản vẫn tăng vì nguồn cung ít và bên nắm giữ tài sản chưa bước vào giai đoạn khủng hoảng đến mức buộc phải bán rẻ.

Cái gì tiếp theo – What comes next:

Vị khách Tây tiết lộ gia đình ông từng sống ở Sài Gòn những năm 1970, sau đó về Pháp. Ông còn cho biết có mẹ ruột là người Việt tóc đen, da vàng nhưng đường nét trên khuôn mặt lại lai Tây. Đó là lý do ông luôn cảm thấy gắn bó và muốn quay lại Việt Nam. Hiện ông sống trong một khách sạn gần nơi bán bánh. “Nếu bán bánh chiên mà tôi đủ sống, tôi sẽ duy trì xe bánh này ở đây“, Fabrice khẳng định.

Tư duy lạc quan tin tưởng vào năm 2021 hứa hẹn nhiều diễn biến tích cực và đà phục hồi mạnh mẽ với niềm tin toàn cầu sẽ khống chế được đại dịch Covid-19. Trong khi đó, nhóm bảo thủ lại thận trọng trước các điểm sáng màu hồng về diễn biến tăng giá tài sản giữa đại dịch vì có thể làm tăng hoài nghi về kịch bản bong bóng giá cho năm sau. Tuy nhiên, dù các bên tham gia vào sân chơi bất động sản lạc quan hay phòng thủ, những mắt xích và bánh xe của thị trường vẫn chuyển động.

Dấu hiệu rủi ro – Rwerek signals:

“Covid-19 tung cú đánh úp không hề báo trước, khiến cho thị trường trở nên khó đoán định và tôi tin nhiều bất ngờ sẽ còn xuất hiện ở phía trước“, ông Nguyễn Lộc Hạnh, Tổng giám đốc Công ty cổ phần Đầu tư Bất động sản Ngọc Châu Á dự báo.

Bong bóng chăng?

—

xxx – npl

<Week …>

Customizing and adapting to Covid, Vietnam was seen as successful in 2020; what would the future be in 2021 while faced with many unexpected factors, what scenario would be for Vietnam entering 2021?

Main events:

By the end of November, people in Tran Dinh Xu and Nguyen Cu Trinh streets (Dweretrict 1) were curious to see Mr. foreigner, tall and tall, standing behind a small stroller with the words “fried banana, fried pineapple” for 10,000 VND. Fabrice (1971), a French tourweret who did not want to return to hwere home country because of Covid-19, was the owner of a fried foods stroller. Every day from 5am to 6pm, he pushed hwere stroller out on the sidewalk, into the convenience store and nearby market to buy ingredients. Around 10am – 11am, he shipped the goods. The reason Mr. foreigner only soldl mornings because he thought that thwere dwereh could be used as a light breakfast for students and employees; Besides in the afternoon around here selling many other dwerehes people would not pay much attention to the small fried stuff stroller.

In 2020, Vietnam’s economy would have a GDP growth of 2.91%. Thwere was the lowest increase in the recent decade of Vietnam but a great success in the context of the complicated Covid-19 epidemic in many regional countries and the world falling into recession; It could be said that Vietnam would both firmly control domestic epidemics and maintain positive economic growth, something not many economies could do in 2020.

But, Covid-19 had also made many paradoxes about property prices appear, selling and renting prices were also in opposite directions on the primary and secondary markets.

Why were it affected:

The idea of ​​selling fried cakes was believed by the French guest to originate from Covid-19. After a period of social separation, Mr. Fabrice went out more because it was so exhausted that he had stayed in the hotel for a long time. There French tourweret entered Vietnam on January 16, 2020, a visa were limited to April 15, 2020, and were among about 3,000 foreign visitors stuck in Vietnam as of April 2020. Mr. Fabrice were one of many people who choose to extend their visa to stay in Vietnam instead of returning home, where there were tension in the middle of translation. On the trolley included a small gas stove, flour pots, a tray for cooked cakes, a banana juice cutting board, fresh banana and pineapple. Pineapple were pre-cut into slices, stored in a box to keep a little sugar overnight, and some cooking utensils such as knives, flour mixes, forks … In particular, the ingredients of male tourwerets could not be without butter. – change fried oil. “There fried cake has more aroma and were not oil-absorbent like Vietnamese banana cake,” commented a customer who has tasted. In the new days of selling, there must be customers coming to buy, Mr. Fabrice started to dip bananas, fragrant in a pot of flour and fried in gold. It took at least 5 minutes to cook. If the sleeve was too thick, he sometimes struggled for 10 minutes. Afraid of customers waiting for a long time, while making cakes, he clasped his hands towards the customers and smiled, expressing their sympathy. Vietnamese people liked to eat sweet, they often gave suggestions to add sweet to the cake, hearing that Mr. Fabrice just laughed. He said that he would not change hwere original recipe, because it was impossible to please everyone’s taste. “If my cakes satwerefy the customers, they would come back to buy it, and I have a lot of customers lately,” said Fabrice.

The recent economic growth results had been achieved thanks to the firmly controlled domestic epidemic decrease, the reduction in the number of deaths, the economic, social, and national defense and security achieved many positive results. According to the Prime Minwereter, the anti-epidemic achievement were an effort of the political system and the entire people when Vietnam were considered as an effective anti-Covid-19 model in the world. In 2021, the government set a target of 6.5% GDP growth. Looking back the past 5 years, Vietnam had generated more than 1,200 billion USD worth of GDP. Particularly in 2020, Vietnam would grow nearly 3%; economic scale reached 340 billion USD, ranked in the top 40 largest economies in the world, equal to and surpassed some major economies in the region, including some Asian “tigers“. With an average growth of 6.8% in the 2016-2019 period, Vietnam were in the top 10 of the world’s highest growing countries. The budget revenue in 2020 has basically met the set target, the budget expenditure was tighter, more economical, and efficient. In the past 5 years, Vietnam created 8 million new jobs. The average income was now 5,000 USD per year.

Despite the epidemic making the economy difficult, many industries would suffer in 2020, housing prices would still skyrocket, making many experts concerned about there unusual paradox. In the past 12 months, the asking price of condominiums in many hot spots of Ho Chi Minh City had set a new record price level. According to a recent survey, in Thu Duc city, apartment prices appeared VND 60-90 million per m2, the price that had never been seen before in there areas. In Binh Chanh district, district 12, apartments were close to the threshold of VND 40 million per m2, also the highest price column in the suburbs. Even low-priced houses rated C, with prices around VND 25 million per m2, were also increased to the price of VND ​​30-35 million per m2. Meanwhile, the asking price of townhouses also escalated in the middle of the epidemic. According to Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) Vietnam, the selling price of townhouses on the primary market set a new record at USD 5,277 (about VND 123 million) / m2, an increase of 35.9% year on year. Selling price of townhouses and villas (townhouses) projects on the primary market in Saigon recorded USD 5,277 / m2 of land, an increase of 35.9% compared to the same period in 2019. Currently, the real estate market has supply were low while demand were too high to create the possibility of price increases. The current housing supply has decreased dramatically and in the future there were still a tendency to continue to decline due to the inconsaretency between relevant laws. Departments only sign for approval of projects when all laws were correct, but thwere were difficult to meet. Thwere causes the supply to plunge 10 times while the demand were still very large. In addition, the impacts of planning, infrastructure and real estate investment psychology of the Vietnamese people make housing prices more and more escalating. The most difficult problem now was that the real estate price increases, making it difficult for the market to develop sustainably, but there were still no solution to improve there situation. The primary selling price of condominiums in some areas recorded a rather high increase, averaging 10-15% compared to the beginning of 2020, consumption of nearly 80% of the basket, an increase in apartment prices on the primary market. due to inflated project input costs and long project legarelation resulting in a significant increase in financial costs. Meanwhile, the price of condominiums on the secondary market decreased slightly, the decrease fluctuated an average of 2-3% compwered to the previous quarter and the transaction was quiete due to difficulties among buyers and sellers. Cash flow problem in the context of low market sentiment in the middle of the season or secondary investors wwerehing to recover capital flows to restructure their portfolios. The house price downward momentum on the secondary market fluctuates only in a small margin and were not representative of the whole market because these transactions take place locally, not on a large scale.

Key trends:

Fabrice’s customers were mostly surrounded people, students from a nearby school, and visitors came to buy them because he sold them on the sidewalk. Some residents commented that there Mr. foreigner never caused public disorder, was friendly with everyone, often bought ingredients or food by others. A small trader said that people only reflected the fact that he often went naked while being rest, causing loss of beauty, and reminded him to always wear a shirt.

The Prime Minwereter at the Government’s online conference with localities, on the morning of December 28, also pointed out that besides those achievements, many difficulties such as unsustainable growth, not commensurate with the potential; the people’s income level remains low; jobs for people were not guaranteed; private enterprises, especially small and medium sized enterprises still faced difficulties; inadequate education and health quality … Vietnam were facing many challenges of climate change such as floods, storms and storms in the Central region recently; saline intrusion in the Mekong Delta … In the coming time, the Prime Minwereter also shared his wish to provide health insurance coverage to all people as soon as possible. The government aimed for children under 16 years of age to be examined and treated with health insurance.

In 2020, the price of townhouse frontage in Ho Chi Minh City were decreasing by 25-40% compared to before Covid-19. Apartment rents would be reduced by 15-20% compwered to the end of 2019. Rents for commercial and office properties would decrease by 25-50% depending on the location and the degree of the dwereease’s impact on the short-term business situation of guests. to rent. Noted in November 2020, many properties still maintained a decline in rent until the end of 2020. It was worth noting that the asking price of properties including real estate and apartment buildings still showed no signs of adjustment. Real estate prices increased by 20-36% compared with the same period last year; the apartment building continued to set a new price level in both the central and suburban area of Ho Chi Minh City. The cause of thwere paradox came from the fact that the real estate market was suddenly affected by the pandemic. Demand for real estate decreased due to the impact of poor business, weak ability to pay and sudden disruption of lessee cash flow, leading to plummeting rent. Meanwhile, asset prices still increase because the supply were low, and the holders of assets had not entered a period of crwerewere that they were forced to sell cheap.

What comes next:

The Western visitor revealed that his family used to live in Saigon in the 1970s, then return to France. He also said that his biological mother were a Vietnamese with black hair and yellow skin, but hwere facial features were Western. That were why he always felt attached to and wanted to return to Vietnam. Currently he lives in a hotel near the bakery. “If I sell fried bread and I could live, I would keep it here,” said Fabrice.

Positive thinking and confidence in 2021 promised many positive developments and strong recovery momentum with global confidence that would control the Covid-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, the conservative group were cautious about the pink bright spots about asset price increases in the middle of the pandemic because it may increase skepticism about the price bubble scenario for the following year. However, whether parties involved in the real estate playing field were optimweretic or defensive, the links and wheels of the market were still in motion.

Risk signals:

“Covid-19 launched a blunt blow without warning, making the market unpredictable and I believe many surprwerees would appear ahead“, said Nguyen Loc Hanh, General Director of Dau Joint Stock Company. Real Estate Ngoc Asia forecast.

A bubble?

—

xxx – npl

Collection – Toàn cảnh bức tranh kinh tế Việt Nam 2020 qua các con số

Theo Đào Hưng – VnEconomy

Full link: https://cafef.vn/toan-canh-buc-tranh-kinh-te-viet-nam-2020-qua-cac-con-so-20201229085510092.chn

Năm 2020, dưới tác động của Covid-19, nhiều nước rơi vào suy thoái nhưng Việt Nam là quốc gia hiếm hoi duy trì tăng trưởng dương với GDP tăng 2,91%; xuất siêu mức cao nhất trong 5 năm…

Văn – 20/52: lỗi

Cuộc sống có lẽ chưa bao giờ là dễ dàng đối với bất cứ cá nhân nào dù là những người sinh ra đã “ngậm thìa vàng”, con đường đời trải dài cùng với những vòng xoáy, ngã rẽ, bế tắc xuất hiện dường như bất tận; nhưng dù thế nào đi chăng nữa, con đường phía trước luôn mở rộng bất kể ở ngã rẽ nào… vì cuộc sống vốn công bằng và những gì xảy ra cũng chỉ là thử thách và luôn nằm trong khả năng của mỗi chúng ta mà thôi…

Mỗi thử thách mà chúng ta phải đối mặt dần dà cũng chấm dứt như “câu chuyện của ngày hôm nay, khi sớm mai ló rạng, đã là một trang sử mới được thêm vào khi buổi ngày vừa kết thúc…”

và bởi vậy,

những gì trước mắt chúng ta đều sẽ trở nên đơn giản nhưng có thể nặng nề hơn với những gì chúng ta đã từng trải qua…

Trên con đường cuộc đời đó, chẳng thiếu gì những cảm xúc tiêu cực, nhưng

chúng ta cũng sẽ không bao giờ bị trừng phạt vì chính những cảm xúc đó hay khi thể hiện chúng ra bên ngoài…

và bởi vậy,

“đừng cố gắng giải thích về bản thân khi

nếu là với những người bạn thì việc đó không cần thiết,

nếu là với kẻ thù thì chúng chẳng bận tâm.” – như ai đó đã từng nói…

Điều may mắn là cảm xúc tiêu cực thực sự có thể chuyển hóa thành yếu tố tích cực khi chính nó trở thành động cơ cho chúng ta tìm được sự bình an nội tâm. Việc cố gắng loại bỏ  những cảm xúc tiêu cực sẽ giúp cho chúng ta thay đổi cách nhìn nhận, vì những nguyên nhân gây ra cảm xúc tiêu cực phần lớn bắt nguồn từ cảm nhận; nhưng không hề gắn vào cách mà chúng ta sẽ tiếp nhận chúng…nên,

cho dù đoạn đường đời có thể gây nhiều ít mệt mỏi nhưng chính những điều mệt mỏi ấy mới làm chúng ta thực sự sống và làm dầy lên những kỷ niệm trong ta… những ký ức dù thương đau hay hạnh phúc thì luôn mãi đẹp – đẹp phần nào vì không thể đổi thay…

Bởi bản tính cố chấp, và thụ động, hay SỢ, việc phải bước ra khỏi “vùng an toàn” trở thành gánh nặng đối với mỗi chúng ta, chúng đòi hỏi chúng ta phải giải phóng được chính mình ra khỏi mớ hỗn độn mâu thuẫn nội tại: liệu chúng ta có khả năng thực hiện điều đó, liệu điều đó là khả thi, liệu chúng ta có kiểm soát được [chúng]…

hãy để cho những suy nghĩ đó “băng ngang” qua chúng ta, chúng không phản ánh thực tế hay khả năng của chúng ta; đó chỉ là “tiếng vọng từ bóng ma” quá khứ mà chúng ta đã thoát ra, và từ chính cách nhìn CŨ của mỗi người…; nên đừng mất công đấu tranh, đừng cố gắng kháng cự nỗi SỢ lỗi thời đó… thay vào đó,

tiếp nhận và thả cho chúng trôi đi trong bình lặng… Thêm vào đó,

vì bản tính là ưa chỉ trích, chúng ta có xu hướng hay lưu giữ những yếu tố tiêu cực, những lầm lỗi của bản thân hay người khác mà hay bỏ qua những việc tốt, thành công mà họ hay mỗi chúng ta đáng được ghi nhận, và

cách chúng ta kiểm soát việc tiếp nhận trở nên quan trọng hơn rất nhiều so với việc bộc phát thể hiện cảm xúc tiêu cực; vì đơn giản, nếu như chúng ta tiếp nhận trong kiểm soát và buông xả được chúng thì sẽ không còn tồn tại việc biểu hiện ra bên ngoài nữa…  tại sao phải lo…

Hãy cảm nhận…

Hãy buông xả…

Hãy nghỉ ngơi…

lấy sức để rồi khi chúng ta sẵn sàng, chúng ta sẽ lại cất bước và tiến lên phía trước…

___

NPL

678 từ 

Collection – Ngẩng đầu làm việc là DŨNG KHÍ, cúi đầu làm người là BẢN LĨNH

Theo Thiên Vy – Doanh nghiệp và tiếp thị

Full link: https://cafef.vn/ngang-dau-lam-viec-la-dung-khi-cui-dau-lam-nguoi-la-ban-linh-20201221102658154.chn

Một người tự tin không nhất thiết phải luôn ngẩng đầu. Đầu, ngẩng lên được, cũng phải cúi xuống được. Bởi lẽ người tự tin, họ hiểu mình hơn, họ tự biết thân biết phận hơn. Họ biết mình giỏi ở đâu, họ có thể ngẩng đầu ở phương diện đó; nhưng nếu thiếu sót ở chỗ nào, họ hoàn toàn có thể cúi đầu khiêm tốn học hỏi để tiến bộ.

Đời người giống như một hành trình, chỉ khi đi nhiều rồi, bạn mới biết đường ngắn hay dài; trải qua nhiều chuyện rồi mới biết chuyện có vui có buồn; nếm qua nhiều vị rồi mới biết vị có chát có nhạt.

Cái gì bạn cũng có thể buông bỏ, nhưng đừng buông bỏ niềm vui; cái gì bạn cũng có thể đánh mất, nhưng đừng đánh mất nụ cười.

Khi thất vọng, ngẩng đầu nhìn trời là một phương hướng; khi đắc ý, cúi đầu nhìn đường là sự tỉnh táo; bạn ngẩng đầu làm việc, đó là dũng khí, bạn cúi đầu làm việc, đó là bản lĩnh; ngẩng đầu mỉm cười là một loại tâm thái, cúi đầu ngắm hoa là một loại trí tuệ; khi rơi vào nghịch cảnh, ngầng đầu là sự ngoan cường, khi đang thuận buồm xuôi gió, cúi đầu là sự điềm tĩnh; khi thấp cổ bé họng, ngẩng đầu là khí phách, khi ở vị trí cao, cúi đầu là sự khiêm tốn; khi sai, ngẩng đầu là muốn học hỏi, khi đúng, cúi đầu là khoan dung.

Rất nhiều người nội tâm không đủ tự tin, hi vọng mình dù ở trong hoàn cảnh nào cũng phải tràn đầy tự tin, đây thực ra là một nhận thức sai lầm. Vào những lúc nào đó, biết cách cúi đầu, bạn mới có ngày xuất đầu lộ diện. Sống ở đời, không phải cánh cửa nào cũng đều rộng mở, có những cánh cửa cần bạn cúi đầu nghiêng người để lách qua, vì vậy, phải học cách cúi đầu, để không gặp phải quá nhiều cản trở trong cuộc sống.

Sống, cầm lên được thì cũng phải buông xuống được. Cầm lên được là “sinh tồn”, buông xuống được là “sống”; cầm lên được là năng lực, buông xuống được là trí tuệ. Có những người chẳng cầm lên nổi nên không có gì để buông xuống; có những người lại cầm lên quá nhiều rồi lại tiếc không muốn buông.

Cầm không được, không nên nổi chuyện gì; buông không xong, tâm phiền tim loạn. Ở bất kì giai đoạn nào của cuộc sống cũng đều không sợ bắt đầu lại từ đầu, mỗi một giai đoạn đều xem như một điểm xuất phát, đó là con đường bắt buộc phải kinh qua nếu muốn chạm tới đỉnh của chóp.

Thứ chúng ta muốn luôn có quá nhiều, nắm được rồi lại tiếc không nỡ buông. Nhưng thứ bạn có thể sở hữu dù sao cũng chỉ rất có hạn, bạn không nỡ bỏ cái này, cuộc sống ắt sẽ lấy đi cái khác của bạn.

Từ bỏ, không phải là yếu đuối, nhu nhược, mà là trí tuệ, nó khiến bạn có cái nhìn thấu đáo hơn về mọi thứ và cho bạn đủ dũng khí để buông tay. Chất lượng cuộc sống của mỗi người không nằm ở việc bạn sống được bao lâu, bạn sở hữu bao nhiêu thứ, mà nằm ở chỗ bạn nắm bắt được bao nhiêu khoảnh khắc tuyệt vời và buông bỏ được bao nhiêu thứ không thuộc về mình.

Thế giới luôn rất công bằng, cũng giống như ánh mặt trời chiếu rọi mọi nơi trên Trái đất, ánh sáng mặt trời mà bạn nhận được mỗi ngày cũng không ít hơn người khác, bạn chào đón bình minh vào cùng một thời điểm mỗi ngày như bao người khác. Thế giới sẽ không cho bất kỳ ai đặc quyền hay đường tắt. Nếu bạn tạm thời có được một số cái gọi là đặc quyền và bạn sử dụng cái gọi là đường tắt, sẽ không lâu nữa mọi thứ sẽ được nhân đôi theo hướng khó khăn khi trở lại với bạn, và những gì bạn phải trả giá chắc chắn sẽ còn đau đớn hơn cả.

Tuần – Week: 14 – 19/12/2020

<For English version, please scroll down…>

Phấn khích… có khi nào dẫn tới quá khích…

Các sự kiện chính – Main events:

Người Mỹ có thể đang cắt giảm chi tiêu cho quà tặng, nhưng trên thị trường chứng khoán, sự phóng khoáng của họ là không có biên giới. Làn sóng mua cổ phiếu bắt đầu cách đây hai tháng không có dấu hiệu giảm bớt, thị trường tăng vọt lập kỷ lục trong khi định giá gia tăng và tâm lý lạc quan. Các nhà đầu tư đã bơm thêm hơn 29 tỷ USD vào chứng khoán Mỹ trong tuần qua, dòng tiền lớn thứ năm từ trước đến nay, theo dữ liệu của EPFR Global.

Tại Việt Nam, dòng tiền cuối năm cũng cho thấy dẫu hiệu ồ ạt đổ vào thị trường, VN-Index tăng gần 16 điểm ngay trong ngày cơ cấu danh mục ETFs; phiên giao dịch chiều ngày 18/12/2020 diễn ra với tâm điểm là hoạt động cơ cấu của 2 quỹ VNM ETF và FTSE Vietnam ETF. Dù vậy, dòng tiền mạnh mẽ của nhà đầu tư trong nước đã giúp phiên cơ cấu ETF diễn ra khá “lành” và hầu hết các cổ phiếu đều duy trì đà tăng. Đóng cửa phiên giao dịch, chỉ số VN-Index tăng 15,69 điểm (1,49%) lên 1.067,46 điểm, lấy lại hết những gì đã mất trong phiên hôm qua. HNX-Index tăng 2,92% lên 177,02 điểm và UPCom-Index tăng 0,88% lên 70,91 điểm. Thanh khoản thị trường duy trì mức cao với giá trị giao dịch 3 sàn đạt hơn 15.000 tỷ đồng.

Tại sao nó ảnh hưởng – Why is it affected:

Làn sóng tiền đang đổ bộ vào thị trường chứng khoán, khi kích thích nền kinh tế của chính phủ Mỹ dường như cạn kiệt và gói mới vẫn chưa xuất hiện. Động lực kinh tế đang suy yếu, với tỷ lệ thất nghiệp đang gia tăng trở lại, doanh số bán hàng tại các cửa hàng bách hóa giảm. Nhưng hiệu ứng đám đông không hề nao núng, các nhà đầu tư đang được thúc đẩy bởi cam kết giữ lãi suất thấp của Cục dự trữ Liên bang. Dòng chảy của các nhà đầu tư cá nhân đã vượt qua áp lực của cả năm, bây giờ không gì có thể ngăn cản được điều đó ngay cả việc COVID-19 quay trở lại.

Trong phiên giao dịch chiều ngày 18/12 đã diễn ra bùng nổ với đà tăng lan tỏa trên nhiều nhóm ngành chứng minh mạnh mẽ thêm cho xu hướng đang dần được khẳng định. Trong đó, nhóm chứng khoán đang hút tiền khá mạnh với hàng loạt mã tăng trần như SSI, VND, FTS, VCI…Sự sôi động của thị trường với hàng loạt phiên giao dịch trên 10.000 tỷ đồng thời gian gần đây đang làm gia tăng kỳ vọng KQKD khả quan của nhóm CTCK. Quỹ Pyn Elite Fund nhìn nhận sau khởi đầu đầy khó khăn trong năm 2020 bởi ảnh hưởng của Covid-19, chỉ số VN-Index đã bước vào giai đoạn tăng trưởng. Kể từ mùa thu, TTCK Việt Nam đã cho thấy dấu hiệu tăng giá bền vững khi luôn giao dịch trên đường bình quân 50 phiên (MA50). NĐTNN đã phản ứng với dịch Covid-19 và bán ra một lượng lớn cổ phiếu Việt Nam trong năm 2020. Trở lại vào tháng 1/2020, thời điểm NĐTNN đang bận rộn xây dựng vị thế tại Việt Nam và họ mua ròng 84 triệu USD. Tuy vậy, tính đến nay, khối ngoại đã bán ròng 557 triệu USD trong năm 2020. Mặc dù NĐTNN đẩy mạnh bán ròng, tuy nhiên NĐT trong nước đã hoạt động tích cực trong mùa thu và là động lực giúp thị trường tăng điểm. Trong tháng 11 và đầu tháng 12, giao dịch khối ngoại khá cân bằng, đồng nghĩa tác động của họ lên thị trường ở mức trung tính.

Xu hướng chính – Key trends:

Diễn tiến trong nhiều tháng tại Mỹ, sự hưng phấn đang tăng cao nhất trong số các nhà giao dịch quyền chọn, nơi khối lượng hợp đồng đặt cược vào khoản lỗ cổ phiếu giảm xuống thấp nhất từ năm 2010 so với các quyền chọn đặt cược vào sinh lời. Trong số các nhà giao dịch quyền chọn nhỏ nhất, khoảng 54% khối lượng đổ vào mua quyền chọn mua đầu tháng này, đây là một kỷ lục mới, theo dữ liệu của SentimenTader. Khoảng 19 triệu quyền chọn đã được đổi chủ mỗi ngày trong quý này, sẵn sàng cho mức cao kỷ lục, dữ liệu của Bloomberg cho thấy.

Lãi suất trái phiếu Chính phủ Việt Nam đã giảm mạnh, từ 5% xuống 2,5% trong 2 năm qua. Xu hướng tương tự cũng đến với lãi suất tiền gửi. NĐT trong nước tỏ ra thận trọng khi rót tiền vào TTCK trong giai đoạn 2018 – 2019 do tâm lý thị trường yếu và lãi suất đủ cao để có lợi nhuận. Thu nhập tích lũy thường được đưa vào tiền gửi và thị trường trái phiếu. Tuy vậy thời điểm này, cổ phiếu hiện đang trở nên hấp dẫn, đặc biệt là so với các khoản đầu tư thu nhập cố định. Trong tương lai, lãi suất ngày càng giảm sẽ hỗ trợ dòng tiền trong nước dịch chuyển từ gửi tiết kiệm sang đầu tư chứng khoán. Trong bối cảnh lãi suất thấp, NĐT trong nước đã ồ ạt mở tài khoản chứng khoán. Trong 11 tháng đầu năm, NĐT trong nước đã mở mới 270.400 tài khoản. Tổng số tài khoản hiện là 2,7 triệu với hơn 300 nghìn tài khoản dự kiến được mở mới trong năm nay. Mối quan tâm đến các khoản đầu tư cổ phần từ các nhà đầu tư trong nước đang tăng mạnh. Hơn 41.200 tài khoản được mở mới trong tháng 11 là con số cao nhất từ trước tới nay. Quỹ Pyn Elite Fund cho rằng mọi thứ sẽ trở nên thú vị hơn nữa khi dòng vốn nước ngoài trở lại Việt Nam. Triển vọng kinh tế của quốc gia trong vài năm tới, tăng trưởng thu nhập của các doanh nghiệp Việt Nam và mức định giá thấp của TTCK Việt Nam chắc chắn sẽ thu hút NĐTNN trở lại.

Cái gì tiếp theo – What comes next:

Sự tăng giá đi liền với vaccine đang thúc đẩy sự phục hồi trong các lĩnh vực tụt hậu như năng lượng, công nghiệp và thúc đẩy thị trường. Tuy nhiên, vẫn chưa có gì là đảm bảo cho chương trình triển khai vaccine ở diện rộng. “Các chỉ báo cho thấy một vài điểm thận trọng ngay lúc này“, Stephen Dover, trưởng bộ phận cổ phiếu tại Franklin Templeton cho biết. “Cách mà nền kinh tế được kích thích thông qua ngân hàng dự trữ đã khiến tiền chảy vào thị trường hơn là tiêu dùng. Đó là nhu cầu bị dồn nén mà nếu đại dịch giảm bớt có thể kích thích nền kinh tế quay trở lại“.

Sự gia tăng từ cuối mùa thu đã đẩy chỉ số VN-Index lên mức cao hơn, nhưng các công ty niêm yết dự kiến sẽ đạt tăng trưởng lợi nhuận đáng kể trong năm 2021. Điều này bắt nguồn từ việc lợi nhuận năm 2020 giảm sâu do ảnh hưởng của Covid-19. Xét theo hệ số P/E năm 2021, TTCK Việt Nam có vẻ rẻ so với định giá trước đây và so với các thị trường châu Á khác. Chỉ số VN-Index hiện giao dịch với P/E Forward 13,3. Trong kịch bản VN-Index đi ngang trong vài năm tới, mức tăng trưởng lợi nhuận ước tính của quỹ Pyn Elite Fund sẽ đưa P/E của VN-Index theo từng năm như sau: 13,3 (2021), 11,5 (2022), 9,7 (2023) và 8,2 (2024). Quỹ này dự báo VN-Index sẽ cán mốc 1.800 điểm và đây là con số không quá lạc quan, có tính đến yếu tố tăng trưởng thu nhập của các công ty, triển vọng mạnh mẽ của nền kinh tế Việt Nam và những cơ hội do sự phát triển TTCK mang lại. Mục tiêu 1.800 điểm đạt được sẽ tương ứng với mức tăng trưởng 80%. Nếu thu nhập tăng như dự kiến, tỷ lệ P/E của TTCK sẽ nằm trong khoảng 15-16, tương đương mức 1.800 điểm. Ngay sau đó, tăng trưởng kinh tế Việt Nam chắc chắn sẽ hỗ trợ mức định giá và chỉ số còn có thể cao hơn nữa.

Dấu hiệu rủi ro – Risk signals:

Trong một bài phân tích gần đây, Wall Stress Journal đúc kết đánh giá của một số chuyên gia và doanh nghiệp về những điểm yếu khi chọn Việt Nam. “Việc hình thành các cụm công nghiệp mới sẽ không diễn ra trong một sớm một chiều. Việt Nam cung cấp lao động giá rẻ, nhưng dân số 100 triệu người của họ là nhỏ so với 1,3 tỷ người của Trung Quốc, các tuyến đường và cảng của nước này bị tắc nghẽn“, tờ báo viết về năng lực chuỗi cung ứng tại chỗ ở Việt Nam cũng còn hạn chế; liệu TTCK Việt Nam có thể gây bất ngờ lớn cho giới đầu tư với “big year” trong khoảng thời gian từ 2020 – 2024 như dự đoán của Pyn Elite Fund.

Tiềm năng chứng khoán có thể đang được thổi phồng, nhưng không còn lựa chọn nào khác cho giới đầu tư (TINA – there is no alternative)…

—

xxx – npl

<Week …>

Excitement … could sometimes lead to overreaction…

Main events:

Americans may be cutting spending on gifts, but on the stock market, their openness was borderless. The wave of buying shares that had started two months ago showed no signs of easing, the market soared to record highs while valuations rose and sentiment optimistic. Investors pumped more than $ 29 billion into US stocks over the past week, the fifth largest cash flow ever, according to EPFR Global data.

In Vietnam, the cash flow at the end of the year also showed signs of mass flow into the market, the VN-Index increased by nearly 16 points right on the day of ETFs portfolio restructuring; On the afternoon of December 18, 2020 session, the focus was on the structural activities of the two funds VNM ETF and FTSE Vietnam ETF. However, the strong cash flow from domestic investors helped the ETF restructuring session took place quite “healthy” and most stocks maintained the uptrend. At the close of the session, the VN-Index increased by 15.69 points (1.49%) to 1,067.46 points, regaining all that was lost yesterday. The HNX-Index rose 2.92% to 177.02 points and the UPCom-Index rose 0.88% to 70.91 points. Market liquidity remained at a high level with trading value on 3 floors of over VND 15,000 billion.

Why is it affected:

The money wave was pouring into the stock market, when the US government’s economic stimulus seemed to be exhausted and the new package has not appeared yet. Economic momentum was waning, with unemployment rising again, and department store sales declining. However, the crowd effect had not wavered; investors were being driven by the Federal Reserve’s pledge to keep interest rates low. The influx of individual investors had weathered the pressures of the year, now nothing could stop it even with the return of COVID-19.

In the afternoon session on December 18, there was an explosion with the spread of momentum across many groups, proving more strongly the trend was gradually confirmed. In which, the securities group was absorbing money quite strongly with a series of stocks going to the ceiling such as SSI, VND, FTS, VCI … The excitement of the market with a series of sessions of over 10,000 billion recently was increasing the expectation of positive business results from securities companies. The Pyn Elite Fund acknowledged that after a difficult start in 2020 due to the influence of Covid-19, the VN-Index had entered a period of growth. Since the fall, Vietnam’s stock market had shown signs of sustained uptrend when always trading above the 50-day moving average (MA50). Foreigners reacted to the Covid-19 translation and sold out a large amount of Vietnamese shares in 2020. Back in January 2020, a time when foreigners were busy building a position in Vietnam and they net bought USD 84 million. However, up to now, foreign investors had net sold 557 million USD in 2020. Although foreign investors boosted net selling, however, domestic investors had been active in the autumn and were the driving force for the market to rise. In November and early December, foreign transactions were quite balanced; meaning their impact on the market was neutral.

Key trends:

Progressing for months in the US, euphoria was rising highest among options traders, where the volume of contracts staked on equity losses had dropped to its lowest since 2010 compared to betting profitable options. Among the smallest options traders, about 54% of the volume entered call options earlier this month, a new record, according to SentimenTader data. About 19 million options were swapped each day this quarter, poised for record highs, Bloomberg data shows.

Vietnam Government bond yields had fallen sharply, from 5% to 2.5% in the past 2 years. A similar trend had come with deposit rates. Domestic investors were cautious when pouring money into the stock market in the period of 2018 – 2019 due to weak market sentiment and high enough interest rates to make profits. Accumulated income is often put in deposits and the bond market. Yet for the moment equities were becoming more attractive, especially relative to fixed income investments. In the future, declining interest rates would support domestic cash flow to shift from savings to securities investment. In the context of low interest rates, domestic investors had massively opened securities accounts. In the first 11 months of the year, domestic investors opened 270,400 new accounts. The total number of accounts was currently 2.7 million with more than 300,000 new accounts scheduled to be opened this year. Interest in equity investments from domestic investors was surging. More than 41,200 new accounts opened in November was the highest number ever. The Pyn Elite Fund thought things would get more interesting when foreign capital flows back to Vietnam. The country’s economic outlook over the next few years, the growth of Vietnamese corporate income and the low valuation of Vietnam’s stock market would surely attract foreign investors again.

What comes next:

The price increased associated with vaccines were driving a recovery in lagging sectors such as energy, industry and market boosts. However, there was still nothing to guarantee a program of widespread vaccine deployment. “The indicators point to some caution right now,” said Stephen Dover, chief equities at Franklin Templeton. “The way the economy is stimulated through the reserve banks has made money flow into the market rather than consumption. It is a pent-up demand that, if the pandemic eases, can stimulate the economy again.“

The increase from the end of the fall pushed the VN-Index higher, but listed companies were expected to see significant profit growth in 2021. This was due to a drop in profits in 2020 deeply due to the influence of Covid-19. In terms of P / E ratio in 2021, Vietnam’s stock market looked cheap compared to previous valuations and compared to other Asian markets. The VN-Index was currently trading with a P / E Forward of 13.3. In the scenario of VN-Index going sideways over the next few years, the estimated profit growth of the Pyn Elite Fund would bring the P / E of the VN-Index each year as follows: 13.3 (2021), 11.5 (2022), 9.7 (2023) and 8.2 (2024). This fund forecasted that the VN-Index would reach 1,800 points and this was not a very optimistic figure, taking into account the income growth factor of companies, the strong prospects of the Vietnamese economy and opportunities by the development of the stock market. The 1,800 points goal achieved would correspond to an 80% growth. If income increases as expected, the P / E ratio of the stock market would be in the range 15-16, equivalent to 1,800 points. Soon, Vietnam’s economic growth would certainly support valuations and the index could be even higher.

Risk signals:

In a recent analysis, the Wall Stress Journal summarizes the assessments of some experts and businesses on the weaknesses of choosing Vietnam. “The formation of new industrial clusters is not going to happen overnight. Vietnam provides cheap labor, but its 100 million population is small compared to China’s 1.3 billion. The country’s roads and ports are congested,” the newspaper wrote about supply chain capacity in Vietnam was also limited; whether Vietnam’s stock market could cause big surprise to investors with “big year” in the period from 2020-2024 as predicted by Pyn Elite Fund.

The stock potential may be hyped, but there is no alternative for investors (TINA)…

—

xxx – npl

Share – [THĐP Translation™] Thuyết tiến hóa có giải thích được nguồn gốc của sự sống không? — Triết Học Đường Phố 2.0

(2129 chữ, 8.5 phút đọc) Không. Nếu xem xét một cách khách quan, chuyện có vẻ như là một vấn đề quan trọng này sẽ làm lung lay học thuyết Tiến hóa…

[THĐP Translation™] Thuyết tiến hóa có giải thích được nguồn gốc của sự sống không? — Triết Học Đường Phố 2.0

Không.

Nếu xem xét một cách khách quan, chuyện có vẻ như là một vấn đề quan trọng này sẽ làm lung lay học thuyết Tiến hóa, bởi vì trong những định nghĩa chính yếu của sự tiến hóa có viện dẫn ADN khi mô tả về sự thay đổi tần suất của các allele* trong một quần thể, sự di truyền cùng với biến dị và nguồn gốc chung của muôn loài – tất cả những điều này chỉ là phỏng đoán chứ không hề khẳng định để giải thích nguồn gốc của một phân tử có khả năng tự sinh sản và sinh vật đơn bào đầu tiên.

*Alen là dạng cụ thể của một gen, có chức năng di truyền nhất định. Đây là một trong những khái niệm quan trọng hàng đầu trong Di truyền học, vốn được phiên âm từ thuật ngữ “allele” của tiếng Anh. Khái niệm “alen” và khái niệm “gen” nhiều khi có thể dùng thay cho nhau, nhưng thực ra là khác nhau. Thời Việt Nam Cộng hòa danh từ này được Ủy ban Quốc gia Soạn thảo Danh từ Chuyên môn dịch là di thể tương hình hay di thể đối vị. (Wiki)

Vấn đề của quá trình tiến hóa thời sơ khai của sự sống và sự lạc quan thiếu căn cứ của các nhà khoa học được bày ra bởi chính Richard Dawkins chứ không phải ai khác. Ông nêu ra những điều kiện đặc biệt trong lịch sử Trái Đất. Vào thời kì sơ khai, trên Trái Đất

“… không có sự sống, không có sinh học, chỉ có vật lý học và hóa học, và những chi tiết hóa học của Trái Đất lúc đó rất khác biệt. Gần như toàn bộ, dẫu không phải tất cả, các nghiên cứu được đưa ra bắt đầu với thứ được gọi là nồi súp nguyên sinh – một nồi nước canh nghèo nàn gồm những chất hữu cơ đơn giản ở dưới biển. Không ai biết được nó đã xảy ra như thế nào, nhưng bằng cách nào đó không hề vi phạm những định luật vật lý và hóa học, một phân tử đột nhiên nảy sinh đặc tính tự sao chép – một “cỗ máy” sao chép (replicator). Điều này giống như một vận may hiếm có… Kì quái làm sao, nó thực sự đã xảy ra… [và] chỉ xảy ra đúng một lần… Hơn thế, theo như những gì chúng ta biết, nó có thể chỉ đã xảy ra trên một hành tinh duy nhất trong số hàng tỉ tỉ hành tinh trong vũ trụ này. Dĩ nhiên có nhiều người nghĩ chuyện này thực sự đã xảy ra trên rất rất nhiều hành tinh, nhưng chúng ta hiện chỉ có bằng chứng cho thấy nó đã xảy ra trên một hành tinh mà thôi, sau một khoảng thời gian trong vòng nửa tỉ đến một tỉ năm. Cho nên vận may mà chúng ta đang xem xét này có thể khó xảy ra đến mức xác suất nó xảy ra tại một nơi nào đó trong vũ trụ trong một năm bất kì có thể chỉ thấp bằng một phần tỉ tỉ tỉ. Nếu nó thực sự đã xảy ra trên một hành tinh duy nhất trong vũ trụ, đó phải là hành tinh của chúng ta – bởi chúng ta đang ngồi đây bàn luận về nó.”

— Richard Dawkins, Climbing mount improbable (1996) W.W. Norton, New York, trang 282 – 283, phần nhấn mạnh (in nghiêng) thuộc nguyên tác)

“Không ai biết được nó đã xảy ra như thế nào, nhưng bằng cách nào đó không hề vi phạm những định luật vật lý và hóa học, một phân tử đột nhiên nảy sinh đặc tính tự sao chép – một cỗ máy sao chép” – điều đó nghe giống như một lời giải thích khoa học hay một niềm tin mù quáng? Tôi đoán là chúng ta phải nên tin vào điều đó, bởi Richard Dawkins đã nói vậy.

“Sau thất bại của từng đó nỗ lực [để giải thích nguồn gốc sự sống], khoa học đã bị đặt vào tình thế khá hổ thẹn khi phải giả định nhiều học thuyết về nguồn gốc sự sống, điều mà khoa học không thể chứng minh. Sau khi chỉ trích các nhà thần học vì sự phụ thuộc của họ vào thần thoại và phép màu, khoa học lại thấy mình ở một vị trí không ai mong muốn của việc phải tự chế ra câu chuyện thần thoại cho riêng mình, cụ thể là giả thuyết cho rằng những điều không thể chứng minh được sau nhiều nỗ lực là có thể xảy ra ngày hôm nay đã thực sự xảy ra trong thời đại nguyên sinh.”

— Tiến sĩ Loren C. Eiseley [cố Giáo sư ngành Nhân chủng học, Đại học Pennsylvania], The immense Journey (TD: Cuộc hành trình mênh mông), trang 199 (tái bản năm 1957, New York, NY: Vintage, 1946)

Những gì chúng ta biết, về tất cả những gì chúng ta biết, là trước mốc 4 tỉ năm về trước, sự sống có lẽ không tồn tại trên Trái Đất. Bề mặt của hành tinh lúc đầu nóng chảy, và kể cả khi nó nguội dần, nó bị các tiểu hành tinh và sao chổi bắn phá. Tất cả những gì có khả năng tồn tại chỉ là những hóa chất đơn giản. Nhưng vào khoảng 3.8 tỉ năm trước, những trận bắn phá kết thúc, và sự sống đột nhiên nảy sinh. Hầu hết những nhà khoa học nghĩ “tổ tiên chung của muôn loài” – cơ thể sống được cho là khởi nguồn của mọi sinh vật trên hành tinh này – xuất hiện vào khoảng 3.6 tỉ năm trước. Trái với câu chuyện về sự tiến hóa điển hình mà ta vẫn được kể, tại thời điểm đó không có nhiều yếu tố xác suất (chủ yếu là thời gian) để kết quả này gần như chắc chắn xảy ra hay tối thiểu là có chút ít khả năng. Không, sự sống không nảy sinh qua hàng tỉ niên đại thời gian, mà tương đối là chỉ sau một đêm…

“…hiện giờ chúng tôi đang có cái chúng tôi tin là bằng chứng thuyết phục cho sự sống trên Trái Đất 3800 nghìn triệu năm [trước đây]. Điều này đưa giả thuyết về Nguồn gốc của Sự sống trên Trái Đất xuống còn một phạm vi rất hẹp … hiện giờ chúng tôi đang nghĩ, bằng các khái niệm địa hóa học, tới khả năng sự sống xuất hiện tức thì…”

— Tiến sĩ hóa học C. Ponnamperuma, trích trong F. Hoyle và C. Wickramasinghe, Evolution from Space (1981) (TD: Tiến hóa từ Không gian)

“Chúng ta còn rất ít thời gian giữa việc phát triển các điều kiện thích hợp cho sự sống trên bên bề mặt Trái Đất và nguồn gốc của sự sống. Sự sống không phải là một sự ngẫu nhiên phức tạp yêu cầu một khoảng thời gian to lớn để biến điều hầu như không thể thành điều gần như chắc chắn. Thay vào đó, bởi tất cả tính phức tạp của nó, sự sống có lẽ đã xuất hiện nhanh chóng ngay khi có thể.”

— Tiến sĩ sinh học S. J. Gould, “An Early Start” (TD: Một sự Khởi đầu Sớm). Natural History, Tháng hai, 1978)

Tuy nhiên nguồn gốc của một phân-tử-có-khả-năng-tự-sao-chép chẳng phải là “vận may kì quái” duy nhất mà ta phải giải quyết. Có một khoảng cách giữa một phân tử có khả năng tự sao chép (DNA) và ngay cả những thực thể sống đơn giản nhất: động vật đơn bào nguyên thuỷ. Một khoảng cách có vẻ như ngày càng tăng lên:

“Các nhà khoa học hiện cho biết, tổ tiên chung kì bí của tất cả sự sống trên Trái Đất có lẽ là phức tạp hơn những gì ta đã nghĩ – một cơ thể sống tinh vi với cấu trúc phức tạp.

Tổ tiên chung cuối cùng của mọi loài, hay LUCA (last universal common ancestor) là sinh vật được các nhà nghiên cứu gọi là tiền thân của tất cả những sinh vật sống. Nhiều thông tin về LUCA vẫn còn là một bí ẩn – nhiều người nghĩ rằng nó chỉ phức tạp hơn một hỗn hợp ban sơ với thành phần là những phân tử, một nồi súp hóa học mà từ đó sự tiến hóa dần dần xây dựng nên những hình thái phức tạp hơn. Một số thậm chí còn tranh luận liệu nó có phải là một tế bào hay không. [Những học thuyết về sự sống đầu tiên của Trái Đất]

Giờ đây, sau nhiều năm nghiên cứu về đặc tính từng bị phớt lờ của vi sinh vật, các nhà khoa học cho rằng tổ tiên chung cuối cùng của mọi loài thực sự rất phức tạp, và có thể được thừa nhận như một tế bào…

Tổ tiên chung cuối cùng của mọi loài có lẽ phức tạp hơn cả những sinh vật đơn giản nhất đang sống ngày nay.”

(“Tổ Tiên Của Mọi Thực Thể Sống Tinh Tế Hơn Ta Nghĩ” – LIVESCIENCE)

“Các nhà nghiên cứu sinh học tế bào giờ đây nhận ra rằng một tế bào sống chứa đựng hàng trăm nghìn những bộ phận phức tạp khác nhau, như các loại protein động cơ (motor protein) hợp lại để tạo nên “bộ máy” phức tạp nhất trong Vũ trụ – phức tạp hơn cả siêu máy tính phức tạp nhất được chế tạo bởi Cray. Sau một thế kỉ nghiên cứu, giờ đây chúng ta cũng nhận ra rằng, sinh vật nguyên sinh nhân thực từng được cho rằng chỉ đơn giản như một chén gelatin vào thời kì của Darwin thực ra lại phức tạp hơn rất nhiều so với tế bào nhân sơ. Hơn thế, sinh học phân tử đã chứng minh rằng cấu trúc cơ bản của tế bào … về bản chất là giống nhau trong mọi cơ thể sống trên trái đất, từ vi trùng cho đến loài thú… Xét về mặt cấu trúc sinh hóa cơ bản … không cơ thể sống nào có thể được xem như là nguyên thuỷ hay là tổ tiên của một cơ thể sống khác, và cũng không tìm ra được một vết tích thực nghiệm nhỏ nhất nào của một trình tự tiến hóa trong số tất cả những tế bào vô cùng đa dạng trên trái đất.”

— Tiến sĩ hóa sinh Denton, Michael. 1986. Evolution: A theory in crisis (TD: Sự tiến hóa: Một lý thuyết đang trong khủng hoảng). Adler and Adler, Bethesda, MD., p. 250)

“Cội nguồn sự sống là một trong những vấn đề hóc búa nhất của khoa học, nhưng nó cũng là một trong những vấn đề quan trọng nhất. Nghiên cứu về nguồn gốc của sự sống đã phát triển thành một lĩnh vực sinh động liên ngành, nhưng nó thường bị các nhà khoa học khác xem xét với thái độ hoài nghi hay thậm chí là chế giễu. Thái độ này có thể hiểu được và theo một nghĩa nào đó có lẽ là hợp lý, tiết lộ một bí mật “xấu xí” hiếm khi được nhắc đến: Mặc dù đã mang lại nhiều kết quả khi được đánh giá trên tiêu chuẩn đơn giản của việc vươn tới (hay thậm chí gần đạt đến) mục đích sau cùng, lĩnh vực nghiên cứu cội nguồn sự sống là một thất bại – thậm chí ta vẫn chưa có được một mô hình chặt chẽ hợp lý, nói gì đến một kịch bản được xác thực về sự xuất hiện của sự sống trên Trái Đất. Dĩ nhiên, điều này không phải do thiếu nỗ lực thực nghiệm hay lý thuyết, mà là do khó khăn và tính phức tạp đặc biệt của bản chất vấn đề. Sự nối tiếp các bước cực kỳ khó xảy ra là điều thiết yếu đối với nguồn gốc của sự sống, từ sự tổng hợp và tích lũy nucleotide cho đến nguồn gốc của sự dịch mã; thông qua sự nhân lên của xác suất, những điều này khiến cho kết quả cuối cùng như thể một phép lạ.”

— Tiến sĩ sinh học phân tử Eugene V. Koonin, The Logic of Chance: The Nature and Origin of Biological Evolution (TD: Logic của xác suất: Bản chất và Nguồn gốc của sự Tiến hóa Sinh học) (Upper Saddle River, NJ: FT Press, 2011), 391.)

Tác giả: Jim Cakalic

Share – Luật Hấp Dẫn – 7 điều ảnh hưởng đến “tần số”, năng lượng của bạn — Triết Học Đường Phố 2.0

(875 chữ, 3.5 phút đọc) Chỉ có hai loại rung động: tích cực và tiêu cực. Mọi cảm giác đều khiến bạn phát ra một rung động tích cực hoặc tiêu cực.

Luật Hấp Dẫn – 7 điều ảnh hưởng đến “tần số”, năng lượng của bạn — Triết Học Đường Phố 2.0

Vật lý cổ điển cố gắng giải thích những gì chúng ta có thể nhìn và cảm nhận bằng 5 giác quan của mình. Nhưng sau đó có một câu hỏi: Phải có nhiều hơn thế, phải có những lực vượt quá khả năng cảm nhận của con người, vậy chúng hoạt động như thế nào?

Hai nhà khoa học vật lý lượng tử Niels Bohr và Max Planck, cha đẻ của Thuyết lượng tử, từng nhận được giải Nobel Vật lý cho ý tưởng của họ vào năm 1922. Nói một cách đơn giản, vật lý lượng tử có thể giải thích mọi thứ mà vật lý cổ điển không thể giải thích, chẳng hạn như hai thứ ở khoảng cách xa dường như không có mối quan hệ nào với nhau, có thể ảnh hưởng đến hành vi của nhau (lý thuyết Entanglement).

Vật lý lượng tử cũng mở ra khả năng tồn tại các vũ trụ song song, thế giới tâm linh và chữa bệnh bằng năng lượng. Dựa trên điều này, chúng ta cần hiểu rằng “những suy nghĩ” của chúng ta có tần số dao động, có thể đo lường được và có khả năng tạo ra thực tế và mọi thứ trong đó.

“Rung động” (“Vibration”) trong vật lý lượng tử có nghĩa là mọi thứ đều là năng lượng. Chúng ta là những sinh vật sôi động trên những tần số nhất định. Mọi rung động đều tương đương với một cảm giác và trong thế giới “Rung động”.

Chỉ có hai loại rung động: tích cực và tiêu cực. Mọi cảm giác đều khiến bạn phát ra một rung động tích cực hoặc tiêu cực.

7 điều ảnh hưởng đến tần số rung động của bạn theo quan điểm của vật lý lượng tử

1. Suy nghĩ: Mọi suy nghĩ đều phát ra một tần số tới vũ trụ và tần số này quay ngược trở lại nguồn gốc, vì vậy trong trường hợp nếu bạn có những suy nghĩ tiêu cực, chán nản, buồn bã, tức giận, sợ hãi, tất cả điều này sẽ quay trở lại với bạn. Đây là lý do tại sao điều quan trọng là bạn phải cẩn thận về chất lượng suy nghĩ của mình và học cách suy nghĩ tích cực hơn.

2. Bạn bè: Những người xung quanh bạn ảnh hưởng trực tiếp đến tần số rung động của bạn. Nếu xung quanh bạn là những người vui vẻ, tích cực và quyết tâm, bạn cũng sẽ có rung động này. Tương tự như vậy, nếu xung quanh bạn là những người phàn nàn, buôn chuyện và bi quan, hãy cẩn thận! Thật vậy, những người này có thể làm giảm tần suất rung động của bạn và do đó ngăn cản bạn áp dụng luật hấp dẫn để thu hút những thứ bạn muốn.

3. Âm nhạc: Âm nhạc rất mạnh mẽ. Nếu bạn chỉ nghe nhạc nói về cái chết, sự phản bội, nỗi buồn, sự bỏ rơi, tất cả những điều này sẽ cản trở cảm giác của bạn. Chú ý đến lời bài hát của bản nhạc bạn nghe, nó có thể làm giảm tần số rung động của bạn.

Và hãy nhớ rằng, bạn sẽ thu hút chính xác những điều tiêu cực mà bạn sợ và nghĩ đến nhiều nhất!

4. Những thứ bạn nhìn vào: Khi bạn xem các chương trình liên quan đến những điều xui xẻo, chết chóc, phản bội, v.v. Bộ não của bạn chấp nhận điều này như một thực tế và như một cơ chế bảo vệ, não sẽ giải phóng các chất hóa học vào cơ thể bạn, ảnh hưởng đến tần số rung của bạn. Bạn nên nhìn vào những thứ mà bạn cảm thấy tốt và giúp bạn rung động ở tần số cao hơn.

5. Không gian xung quanh bạn: Dù là ở nhà hay nơi làm việc, nếu bạn ở nhiều trong môi trường bừa bộn và bẩn thỉu, nó cũng sẽ ảnh hưởng đến tần số rung của bạn. Cải thiện những gì xung quanh bạn, tổ chức và làm sạch môi trường của bạn. Cho vũ trụ thấy rằng bạn phù hợp để nhận được nhiều hơn nữa. Hãy chăm sóc những gì bạn đã có!

6. Ngôn ngữ: Nếu bạn tuyên bố hoặc nói sai về mọi thứ và về người khác, nó sẽ ảnh hưởng đến tần số rung của bạn. Để duy trì tần số rung động của bạn cao, điều cần thiết là loại bỏ thói quen phàn nàn và nói xấu về người khác. Quan trọng hơn, tránh kịch tính và bắt nạt người khác. Hãy chịu trách nhiệm về những lựa chọn của cuộc đời mình!

7. LÒNG BIẾT ƠN: Lòng biết ơn ảnh hưởng tích cực đến tần số rung động của bạn. Đây là một thói quen bạn nên hòa nhập ngay từ bây giờ vào cuộc sống của mình. Bắt đầu cảm ơn vì mọi thứ, những điều tốt đẹp và những điều bạn cho là xấu, cảm ơn vì tất cả những gì bạn đã trải qua. Lòng biết ơn mở ra cánh cửa cho những điều tốt đẹp xảy ra một cách tích cực trong cuộc sống của bạn.

Source: Unidentifiable

Ẩm thực – 26 Things to Do Before Sleep to Lose Weight

BY GRANT STODDARD

Full link: https://www.eatthis.com/things-to-do-before-bed-to-lose-weight/?utm_source=nsltr&utm_medium=email&utm_content=cdc-approved-holiday-food-rules-2020&utm_campaign=etntNewsletter

Drop pounds and lose belly fat with the help of these simple nighttime hacks.

Real, successful, sustainable weight loss can come from achieving excellence in a completely unexpected realm: the bedroom.

It’s true! You can absolutely sleep your way to a slimmer you. In fact, no matter how many pounds you press, how many miles you log, how much kale you crunch, it won’t get you as close to your weight loss goals as you’d expect unless you’re also getting enough quality sleep.

University of Chicago researchers found that sub-par sleep could undermine fat loss by as much as 55%! The good news is just a few simple tweaks to your p.m. routine can mean serious weight loss success. Read on, and for more on how to eat healthy, you won’t want to miss these 21 Best Healthy Cooking Hacks of All Time.

1

Understand how important sleep is for weight loss.

Shutterstock

To turn sleep into prime weight loss time, realize how important a good night’s sleep is for optimizing and regulating all your bodily functions, including how you use and store caloric energy. The hunger hormones at play here are leptin and ghrelin. Leptin helps to regulate your energy levels and keep your appetite low, while ghrelin stimulates hunger and often initiates the need to eat. People who get more sleep have reduced ghrelin and increased leptin levels, which helps to control their appetites throughout the day. That was the finding of research conducted at the University of Wisconsin. Another study published in the Archives of Internal Medicine found that overweight people, on average, got 16 minutes less sleep per day than people of regular weight. Although that might not sound like a big difference, those minutes—like your belly fat—accumulate over time.

2

Sip a cup of tea.

Shutterstock

Wind down with a cup of rooibos tea, and burn belly fat while you do it! Naturally decaffeinated, rooibos tea is made from the leaves of the “red bush” plant, grown exclusively in South Africa. What makes rooibos tea particularly good for your belly is a unique and powerful flavonoid called Aspalathin. Research shows this compound can reduce stress hormones that trigger hunger and fat storage, making rooibos one of the best fat-burning foods.

3

Load up on tryptophan.

iStock Photo

Don’t count sheep, eat lamb! (Or better yet, a bit of turkey.) Tryptophan, an amino acid found in most meats, has demonstrated powerful sleep-inducing effects. A study among insomniacs found that just 1/4 gram—about what you’ll find in a skinless chicken drumstick or three ounces of lean turkey meat—was enough to significantly increase hours of deep sleep. And that can translate into an easy slim-down. Researchers from the University of Colorado found that dieters consumed 6% fewer calories when they got enough sleep. For someone on a 2,000-calorie diet, that’s 120 calories per day, which could amount to nearly a one-pound weight loss in a month! The National Sleep Foundation suggests seven to eight hours of sleep for most adults.

And just so you know, here are The 5 Absolute Best Foods to Eat For Better Sleep.

4

Eat cottage cheese.

Shutterstock

Completely avoiding food before bedtime can actually be bad for your weight loss goals. First, going to bed with a rumbling tummy makes falling asleep difficult. Second, people who wake up feeling hungry are far more likely to pig out on a big breakfast. Have a little cottage cheese before bed. Not only is it rich in digestion-slowing casein protein, but it also contains the sleep-promoting amino acid tryptophan.

5

Create a routine.

Shutterstock

By doing the same thing every night, for at least an hour before bedtime, you’re actually programming sleep triggers. These triggers could include writing in your sleep diary, having a cottage cheese snack, or indeed any other items from this list. Over time, your brain will begin to associate those things with bedtime and fast track you into fat-burning slumber.

6

Obseve strict kitchen hours.

Shutterstock

Nighttime fasting—a.k.a. closing the kitchen early—may help you lose more weight, even if you eat more food throughout the day, according to a study in the journal Cell Metabolism. Researchers put groups of mice on a high-fat, high-calorie diet for 100 days. Half of them were allowed to nibble throughout the night and day on a healthy, controlled diet, while the others only had access to food for eight hours, but could eat whatever they wanted. The result of the 16-hour food ban? The fasting mice stayed lean, while the mice who noshed ’round the clock became obese—even though both groups consumed the same amount of calories!

7

Do some resistance training.

Shutterstock

Pre-sleep resistance training can really help to optimize the weight you loss during sleep. According to a journal published in the International Journal of Sport Nutrition, subjects who performed resistance exercises enjoyed a higher resting metabolic rate for an average of 16 hours following their workout. If you usually work out first thing in the morning, your sleepytime weight loss won’t be impacted by that spike in metabolism. Go big, go home, then get into bed.

8

Relax.

Shutterstock

There’s nothing more frustrating than looking at the clock all night and cursing yourself for not being able to drift off at 1 a.m., 2 a.m., and again, at 3 a.m. It certainly doesn’t help things. Take comfort in the fact that that merely relaxing your mind and body will help rejuvenate you in lieu of honest-to-goodness sleep. Once you’re not so excited about your inability to fall asleep, it’ll come more naturally.

9

Follow the 20-minute rule.

Shutterstock

If you’re not getting anywhere after chilling out for 20 minutes, get out of bed, leave the bedroom and do something quiet and unstimulating. Try reading a book, or flipping through a catalog.

10

Shake things up.

Shutterstock

Having a protein shake before hitting the sack may boost your metabolism, according to one Florida State University study. Researchers found that men who consumed good snacks in the evening that included 30 grams of either whey or casein protein had a higher resting metabolic rate the next morning than when eating nothing. Protein is more thermogenic than carbs or fat, meaning your body burns more calories digesting it.

11

Do some bodyweight exercises.

Maybe the rigamarole of getting dressed and going to the gym after dark isn’t for you, and that’s understandable. But that doesn’t mean you can’t use your body weight for a quick workout before bed. According to Combat the Fat author Jeff Anderson, bodyweight exercises target muscle in a unique way due to the effect of fighting gravity. Examples of these exercises include push-ups, pull-ups, dips and bodyweight squats.

12

Make a to-do list.

Shutterstock

Thoughts of a busy day whizzing around your head won’t help you get in the right condition for a relaxing 8-hour sleep shift. Try writing down everything you need to do the next day. It can make your life seem more manageable.

13

Fit in late cardio.

Shutterstock

Examples of cardio include walking around the neighborhood, walking or running up and down the stairs, jogging and/or riding an exercise bike. Adding activities like these to your pre-bed routine can help you to burn belly fat. Bonus points if you can do a little resistance training immediately before your late cardio session. Studies show that cardio is more effective if you do it immediately after weightlifting or bodyweight exercises.

14

Turn down the thermostat.

Shutterstock

A striking new study published in the journal Diabetes suggests that simply blasting the air conditioner or turning down the heat in winter may help us attack belly fat while we sleep. Colder temperatures subtly enhance the effectiveness of our stores of brown fat—fat keeps you warm by helping you burn through the fat stored in your belly. Participants spent a few weeks sleeping in bedrooms with varying temperatures: a neutral 75 degrees, a cool 66 degrees, and a balmy 81 degrees. After four weeks of sleeping at 66 degrees, the subjects had almost doubled their volumes of brown fat. (And yes, that means they lost belly fat.)

15

Take a bath or shower.

Shutterstock

A UCLA study of some of the world’s last remaining hunter-gatherer tribes noted that temperature drops were an important sleep cue for our Paleolithic forebears. We no longer sleep under the stars that much, but you can recreate a sunset-like temperature drop by taking a hot bath or shower. The dip might make your pound-shedding shuteye deeper and make you fall asleep faster.

16

Take some mint.

Shutterstock

Certain scents can make your mouth water, and others can actually suppress your appetite. One study published in the Journal of Neurological and Orthopaedic Medicine found that people who sniffed peppermint every two hours lost an average of 5 pounds a month! Banana, green apple, and vanilla had similar effects. Consider burning a minty candle until you head to bed to fill the room with slimming smells. If you don’t want to bother with blowing out candles before you turn down the covers, try adding a few drops of peppermint oil to your pillow. A small cup of peppermint tea (which just so happens to be one of these best teas for weight loss) is another option worth trying.

17

Do crunches.

Shutterstock

According to Anderson, new research suggests that you may be able to spot reduce body fat from your abdomen. Before hitting the sheets do a giant set of crunches, reverse crunches, and side jackknifes. Then go to sleep safe in the knowledge that you’ve given your body a little help in shifting that tire while you’re zonked out.

18

Throw out your night light.

Shutterstock

Exposure to light at night doesn’t just interrupt your chances of a great night’s sleep, it may also result in weight gain, according to a new study published in the American Journal of Epidemiology. Study subjects who slept in the darkest rooms were 21% less likely to be obese than those sleeping in the lightest rooms.

19

Eat some carbs.

Ready for some controversy? Eating carbs before bed may not be a bad idea if you want to lose some weight! Seventy-eight obese members of the Israeli Police Force took part in a 6-month randomized clinical trial. The experimental group was prescribed a low-calorie diet (20% protein, 30–35% fat, 45–50% carbohydrates, 1,300–1,500 kcal) that provided carbohydrates mostly at dinner. The control group consumed a similar diet, except that carbohydrate intake was spread throughout the day. After six months, the group eating most of their carbs at night lost slightly more weight and body fat and experienced greater reductions in waist circumference. Want to give it a try? Choose from these best healthy carbs!

20

Strike a pose.

Shutterstock

By the time you’ve had your time on this mortal coil, you’ll have spent up to 30 years asleep. To get the most out of that investment, you’d better figure out which sleeping posture you find most restorative, then build your bed around it. You can do that by buying the right mattress and pillow to mitigate against any areas of discomfort. If you sleep on your side, putting a pillow between your legs will minimize twisting strain on your lower back, while hip pain can be lessened by using a mattress topper to help soften and contour your body.

21

Hide your phone.

Shutterstock

The more electronics we bring into the bedroom, the fatter we get—especially among children. A study in the Pediatric Obesity journal found that kids who bask in the nighttime glow of a TV or computer don’t get enough rest and suffer from poor lifestyle habits. Researchers found that students with access to one electronic device were 1.47 times as likely to be overweight as kids with no devices in the bedroom. That increased to 2.57 times for kids with three devices. Even if you’re a full-grown adult, it’s best to leave your iPad in the living room.

22

Turn down the blue light from devices.

Shutterstock

Use an app like F.lux or Night mode on Apple products to reduce the blue light emitting from your computer and smartphone. It works by eliminating eye strain from the harsh light that inhibits melatonin production. Melatonin is the hormone responsible for regulating sleep rhythms. The latest iPhone and iPads have a similar built-in feature called Night Shift.

23

Start a sleep diary.

Shutterstock

Do you really have an accurate read on how much sleep you are or aren’t getting? It’s always best to work from data, even if you’re the one logging the quality and duration of your sleep. Simply list each complete hour you were asleep in bed, and each partial hour (including naps). Then make a note of the events that may have influenced your sleep. Did you exercise that day? Drink a lot of coffee? After two weeks, read through the whole thing, looking for patterns. The results may surprise you—and help you with your weight loss goals. Speaking of diaries, you can also keep a food journal to lose weight. Learn how with The Expert Guide to Keeping a Food Journal for Effective Weight Loss.

24

Breathe through your nose.

Shutterstock

Why? Well, first it will prevent snoring. That will not only improve your sleep but also the sleep of anybody else in earshot. Secondly, it provides more oxygenation, so you can take those deep breaths that help to relax the body. Use Breathe Right strips if you’re stuffy.

25

Understand your circadian rhythm type.

Shutterstock

Pay attention to the times you feel and perform at your best, when you naturally wake without an alarm clock, and when you start to feel sleepy in the evenings. Add this info to your sleep diary. This information will tell you about your “chronotype” which will allow you to set healthy sleep goals that work with your natural rhythms. A free online assessment at the Center for Environmental Therapeutics can help you find your type, and provide related advice.

26

Plan small, steady meals for throughout the day.

Shutterstock

Eating small, nutrient-dense meals frequently throughout the day serves to keep your metabolism ticking, and will ensure your body continues burning fat throughout the night. Furthermore, eating frequently will ensure your appetite is kept in check, which will reduce any cravings you have when you wake. For some mid-meal ideas, check out these 50 Healthy Snack Ideas to Keep You Slim.

Ẩm thực – The ‘Pie Engineer’ Who Designed a Dessert For the Jazz Age

BY ROSSI ANASTOPOULO

Full link: https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/american-pie-history?utm_source=Gastro+Obscura+Weekly+E-mail&utm_campaign=a56996f275-GASTRO_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_12_12&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_2418498528-a56996f275-70327933&mc_cid=a56996f275&mc_eid=df51e46713

With a new filling and a new crust, an American innovator changed pie forever.

Monroe Boston Strause would reinvent the cream pie. LIBRARY OF CONGRESS/2019672604

CALIFORNIA IS THE “LAND OF Opportunity.” That term was never meant to apply to pie-making, per se, but no one ever told Monroe Strause.

The future Pie King started from humble origins. Monroe Boston Strause was born to salt-of-the-earth parents who left the Midwest for sunny California, raising him and his siblings among the towering palm trees and sky-high hopes of early 20th-century Los Angeles.

As a teenager, he joined his uncle’s wholesale pie business in 1919, where he was soon confronted with a crisis: rising competition from cakes, which were becoming increasingly accessible for home cooks since standardized ovens made baking easier. His industry was in trouble. And thus, the young, curious, and ambitious Strause entered the Roaring ‘20s with a burning conviction to innovate the humble pie.

Strause considered pie to be the “Great American Dessert,” and deemed it superior to just about every other food. A natural perfectionist, his driving motivation was to create better versions of the dish. But unlike housewives and grandmothers, the patron saints of pie, Strause approached pie-making in a way that reflected the growing emphasis on scientific thought that took root in the 1920s. He treated new pies as individual inventions, and methods of preparation as equations to solve. He even referred to his recipes as “formulas.”

Strause hard at work on pies. PIE MARCHES ON / COURTESY HATHITRUST DIGITAL LIBRARY

In his 1939 book Pie Marches On, Strause’s publishers summed up his approach: “He has reduced pie baking to an exact science and measures each ingredient with the care of a pharmacist.” This style meant no volume measurements (Strause wrote that “the tea cup and teaspoon are the greatest enemies of a good pie”) and endless experimentation. Once, he made 150 different versions of cherry pie. His pie fixation also meant he had the tendency to get a little high-and-mighty. Strause once sniffed that housewives “tend to be too slipshod for scientific pie-making.”

One problem in particular vexed him. He was supremely unsatisfied with cream pies, which were thick, heavy, and reminded him of cornstarch pudding. This characteristic was a personal insult. Strause once ate so much cornstarch pudding as a child that he became sick, and he couldn’t stomach it at all afterwards. So he began experimenting on a new cream pie.

The result was the Chiffon Pie, the crown jewel of Strause’s illustrious pastry career and a genre of pie that endures to this day. Inspired by recipes for French pastry cream, Strause developed a pie filling that incorporated stiffly beaten egg whites into a cornstarch-thickened cream. The result was a delicate, airy filling that retained its firmness and volume, one that “stood up like a soldier on parade,” as the New York Herald Tribune later described. As for the name, the story goes that when Strause first presented his mother with his new creation, she exclaimed that the smooth, light filling was “like chiffon.”

Here, Strause teaches his pie-making methods to two students. PIE MARCHES ON / COURTESY HATHITRUST DIGITAL LIBRARY

The silky texture wasn’t the only innovative element of Strause’s new pie. It was piled high in the middle and rounded off in a dome that was a first in pie design. And though the sexy new filling got all of the glory, the pie’s crust proved arguably more influential. Strause found typical pie crusts to be too thick for such a light filling, so to house his edible chiffon, he developed a new crust made from graham cracker crumbs, patted into the pie pan and pre-baked to a buttery crunch. The graham cracker crust he invented went on to become a foundation of American pie-making, holding up everything from cheesecake to key lime pie.

The Chiffon Pie was first sold as a novelty in Los Angeles for $0.35 a slice, or a little over $5.00 today. The exact date of its debut is unclear, though it was most likely in 1926, at the height of the Jazz Age. The new pie caught on quickly, becoming a pastry sensation and bringing both business and fame to its creator. The delicate, refined pie—a stark contrast to heavy, rustic fruit versions—aligned with the glamor and elegance of Hollywood and the film industry. Strause made the connection explicit. In his book, he included a photograph of silent film star Mary Pickford, along with an Orange Chiffon Pie.

Strause offers an Orange Chiffon Pie to “America’s Sweetheart,” Mary Pickford. PIE MARCHES ON / COURTESY HATHITRUST DIGITAL LIBRARY

The pie’s rise to prominence also coincided with an emphasis in American cuisine on feminine food. Beginning as early as 1907 with the cookbook Sea Foam’s Collection of Dainty Receipts, dessert recipes began trending toward the ethereal, with ingredients like cream, gelatin, and whipped egg whites. These dishes were aimed toward women as a reflection of their femininity, and women’s magazines encouraged them to master elegant, dainty desserts that transcended hearty “masculine” fare. Arriving in the 1920s, the Chiffon Pie was perfectly timed to this trend, capitalizing on the fetish for airy concoctions.

Within a few years of the Chiffon Pie’s debut, Strause had one of the biggest pie operations in the West. He made a fortune off his creation by keeping his recipe close to his chest. At one point, he traveled up to 30,000 miles a year to teach hotels and restaurants how to make it. Within a handful of years, the Chiffon Pie’s recipe leaked and became public knowledge. But by that time, it had already done its work. The public crowned Strause as the Pie King.

On the back of his pie’s unprecedented success, Strause skyrocketed to fame. He became arguably the first pastry celebrity in America. In many ways, his widespread fame and relentless drive for innovation made him the Dominique Ansel of his day, almost a century before the famed pastry chef invented the hit Cronut of 2013.

This lime chiffon pie with a graham-cracker crust wouldn’t exist without Monroe Boston Strause. BRIAN HAGIWARA/GETTY IMAGES

Throughout the 1930s, Strause traveled across the country, delivering lectures, consulting for restaurants, teaching classes, and more. In Chicago, he won a pie contest against over 2,500 other desserts. Media-savvy and with a flair for showmanship (he once baked a novelty pie 24 feet in diameter for newsboys in Los Angeles), Strause sat for interviews with newspapers across the country, bolstering his brand as a “pie engineer” and presenting himself as the country’s foremost expert on the subject. His success didn’t just bring him fame, either. According to one profile in The Globe and Mail, he made “a bank president’s salary out of pie.”

Yet, for all his influence, the latter half of Strause’s life is obscure. By the 1950s, his prominence waned, and the widespread acclaim he enjoyed for his pie inventions dwindled. It’s unclear how he spent the last years of his life, though one hopes he still enjoyed plenty of pie.

Strause used his skill to create confections that captured the spirit of his era. As the Roaring ‘20s exploded with glamour and modernity, the Pie King brought a bit of that ephemeral magic to the pastry world. Today, others have since taken up his innovative mantle. From Lauren Ko and her geometric modern art designs to Nicole Rucker’s bright and breezy California creations, bakers continue to experiment with the Great American Dessert.

Ẩm thực – Why the Internet Is Blowing Up About LA’s Most Infamous Jam Maker

by Jaya Saxena

Full link: https://www.eater.com/2020/7/13/21322462/sqirl-jam-mold-moldgate-jessica-koslow?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NATIONAL%20-%2071320&utm_content=NATIONAL%20-%2071320+CID_dac82138bcbfcf5c0eb1d5096f00dd02&utm_source=cm_email&utm_term=WHY%20THE%20INTERNET%20IS%20BLOWING%20UP%20ABOUT%20MOLDY%20JAM%20AT%20SQIRL

Sqirl, the LA darling known for its ricotta toast with jam, is under fire for allegedly selling moldy jam and harboring a secret kitchen

Wonho Frank Lee

Last year, the New York Times asked of LA’s Sqirl and its founder, Jessica Koslow, “Can you build an empire out of jam?” Sqirl is synonymous with a certain cool, aspirational, and white version of LA. It is the epicenter of “clean” comfort food, serving grain bowls with eggs and sorrel, avocado toast, turmeric drinks, and its iconic ricotta jam toast, which Eater’s Meghan McCarron described as like “eating a gigantic slice of cake, but a nourishing one, like a sweet and hearty childhood breakfast.”

Much of that enjoyment hinges on Koslow’s reputation as an expert jam maker. But over the weekend, allegations circulated painting a picture of a dirty, unhealthy kitchen filled with buckets of Sqirl’s signature product covered in mold.

The allegations have been compiled by Joe Rosenthal on Instagram, and many come from people who appear to be former Sqirl employees. Like many restaurants in recent weeks, the callout seems to have started after Sqirl posted about donating profits to anti-racism causes. Comments began piling regarding Sqirl’s hand in gentrifying its neighborhood, and the lack of diversity among Sqirl’s staff. Then, people who appeared to have worked at Sqirl accused the restaurant and growing jam giant of regularly serving jam that had grown mold. “We’re talking about some buckets having like ¹⁄₄ inch of mold covering the entire tops of gallon buckets,” one of the posts alleged. The former employees allege Koslow herself instructed them to just scrape the mold off before serving.

An employee from sqirl shared this photo of the moldy jam from their kitchen. The fact that were told to just scrape the mold off is pic.twitter.com/uPCsevWoBi— h (@hanaymoi) July 12, 2020

Aside from the confusion as to why jam, aka preserves, would develop mold so quickly, former employees also allege Koslow deliberately hid the moldy jam from health inspectors. At least one person alleges that it was because there was mold on a fan in the storage room, which would blow spores over the open buckets. But also, employees say they were repeatedly told it was okay to serve. “We were told that the health department gave us permission to scoop the mold off if it went two inches down,” said one former employee. Others say they were asked to hide the jam until inspectors were gone. Which all seems like a lot more work than making jam that doesn’t mold in the first place.

Sqirl has responded to the allegations on Instagram, saying that because it doesn’t use commercial pectin, stabilizers, or much sugar, “a low sugar jam is more susceptible to the growth of mold.” It also claims it did serve jam that had been in moldy batches, but that was done “with the guidance of preservation mentors and experts like Dr. Patrick Hickey,” a mycologist who previously told the BBC that it is perfectly safe to eat moldy jam if you scrape it off.

The morbid glee over the Sqirl takedown is familiar to anyone who enjoyed watching that perfect, untouchable girl in high school finally revealed to have a flaw: There is plenty of boasting on the internet over never having liked Sqirl in the first place, of thinking its proprietors were pretentious, fussy gentrifiers before hating them was cool. But what makes the story so viral (or spore-ful) is watching a place that has built its brand not just on jam, but on the goodness of “real” food get taken down for precisely what it supposedly does best. So far, no one has claimed to have gotten sick off Sqirl’s jam, but it’s shocking and disgusting and allows for everyone who never posted an artfully lit photo of the jam toast or the line down the block to feel incredibly smug.

While the jam is certainly the visual shocker, many of the other allegations against Sqirl and Koslow are about presenting an aura of progressiveness while treating employees of color unfairly. Javier Ramos, former chef de cuisine at Sqirl, posted to his Instagram stories a screenshot of a comment he left on a different Instagram account, claiming Koslow “took credit” for his work, and that he “didn’t get recognition or payment for the recipes that I contributed to the cookbook.” Ria Dolly Barbosa also commented that Koslow “took credit for the first two years I was her chef there,” and said the jam toast itself was the invention of chef Matt Wilson, not Koslow. (Neither Koslow nor Sqirl has commented on these allegations.)

Aside from the internet backlash, Sqirl appears to have suffered one tangible consequence of this expose. Diaspora Co, a sustainable spice company known for its single-origin turmeric, released a statement on its recent jam collaboration with Sqirl. “After hours of conversations with Sqirl employees (current and former), a mold expose, and some difficult convos with Sqirl leadership, we are here to say this collab was a mistake.” The company had hoped it could highlight BIPOC (Black, indigenous, and people of color) farmers, but decided “the collab gave Sqirl another trendy marketing boost.” The company has pulled the remaining jars from its site, and is offering refunds.

It’s quite possible the mold backlash will continue to dominate the food discourse for a while: For the majority of people who have not been to Sqirl, it’s pretty hilarious that the “coastal elites” have been caught fawning over moldy jam — but the problems may also go deeper than improper jam-cooling techniques. The restaurant has yet to acknowledge any allegations of mistreatment by former chefs.

Kungfu – Dan Inosanto on Staying Active and Effective in Your Golden Years,

By Robert Young

Dan Inosanto has been a martial arts icon for decades — witness his four Black Belt Hall of Fame inductions!

Part 1

You may know of Dan Inosanto from his early days when he was one of the first kenpo black belts under Ed Parker, from the years he stood at Bruce Lee’s side in the jeet kune do world, from the decades he spent researching the martial arts of Southeast Asia or from his ongoing study of Brazilian jiu-jitsu, in which he holds a third-degree black belt under the Machados.

Dan Inosanto truly has been there and done that — several times over. Yet even though he’s in his 80s, he maintains a schedule chock-full of international seminars and private lessons, as well as the hours of weekly classes he teaches at his Marina del Rey, California-based academy.

Inosanto made time to do this interview with Dr. Mark Cheng (who also serves as one of his physicians) so all Black Belt readers can share his recipe for success in martial arts.

Black Belt: Your schedule is a blistering one — for a person of any age. Just with the hours of private lessons you take during the week, most people would be hard-pressed to keep up. And then there’s the travel and teaching you do.

Dan Inosanto: You really need a team of people to help keep you going. In my case, I’ve got my wife Paula, who’s not only a gifted instructor and more talented than I am in some arts but also the one who oversees the business end [of] the academy and the seminars. Without her keeping me straight, I’d be a mess. That’s really freed me up to do what I love: explore and develop.

Black Belt: In your explorations, what helps you stay healthy and physically active?

Dan Inosanto: There are so many factors that are part of that. Nutrition is one aspect that I’ve only recently started paying attention to. It wasn’t until maybe my 70s when I started really studying nutrition. Before my 70s, I pretty much ate what I wanted, when I wanted and how I wanted. But especially now, since I’ve had a few flare-ups of gout and experienced how painful and debilitating that can be, I’m more careful about what I eat.

Black Belt: How are you able to be careful about what you eat when you’re traveling?

Dan Inosanto: I use those days as my cheat days. If I’m in a country or place that I know well and can get healthier food, then of course I’ll try to get that instead, but I don’t stress about it too much. I try to listen to what my body wants and then see how my body reacts.

Get the new Tao of Jeet Kune Do: Expanded Limited Edition!

Don’t misunderstand me, though. I’m not saying I just give in to any craving randomly. I try to allow myself some leeway when I’m craving something healthier. Maybe one morning, I’ll feel like grapes for breakfast, but maybe it’ll be cherries the next day. I still allow myself red meat once in a while, and when I’m on the road for seminars, I still have coffee. Everything’s about balance.

Black Belt: Is there a particular diet or style of eating that you subscribe to?

Dan Inosanto: No. I think what’s best for one person isn’t always what’s best for someone else. Some people can get away with eating things that would make someone else sick. This isn’t my area of expertise, but I think it has to do with each individual’s environment and body chemistry. If you don’t have enough of the right enzymes to break down something you eat, even if someone else calls it “healthy,” you might have a reaction to it.

Black Belt: On a physical level, what are some realizations that have helped you stay in the game?

Dan Inosanto: Recovery is so important. I’m lucky — I have a whole team of people, among whom you’re included, Doc — who keep me moving and keep my body functioning well enough to do more or less what I want. In fact, I think you or someone you introduced me to said something to the effect that for every hour you spend training and expending energy, you need to spend an hour recharging and recovering.

Obviously, it’s unrealistic to think that every time you take an hour lesson or training session, you need an hour massage. Recharging and recovering might include a whole bunch of things that fall under the heading of “restorative.” That can mean receiving treatment from someone in the form of chiropractic or massage, it can mean a gentle stretching session that helps you feel good afterward, or it can mean meditating or taking a nap. You basically want to create a balance between the hours you spend on energy output and energy input.

Black Belt: Have your own ideas about what’s useful and what’s useless in martial arts training changed over the years?

Dan Inosanto: Oh, of course! I’ve told you the story about how Bruce Lee came with me one time to professor Ark Y. Wong’s kung fu class. At the point in the class when professor Wong had us practicing the horse stance, Bruce rolled his eyes and yawned. He made fun of some of the classical exercises we were doing.

Back then, we thought those strict horse stances were just to test your patience or to build up your legs, but now I realize they did a lot more than that. For example, a good horse stance opens up your hips, which takes strain off your knees and lower back. If your hips are healthy, you can walk and move. If your hips aren’t healthy, you can’t do a lot of the low postures, either.

Black Belt: Speaking of low postures, have you found that doing ground work has helped your body?

Dan Inosanto: I owe a lot of my health and ability to move to Roger and Rigan Machado. Roger’s yoga-jitsu, which is a fusion of yoga and the fundamental moves in BJJ, really helped me to get my hips moving again. When you move and roll on the ground, it kind of massages you. You also have to push against the ground in directions that are different than you would while standing, so it teaches your body to develop strength and mobility in ways it ordinarily wouldn’t if you just trained standing all the time.

That’s part of what I like about silat, too. A lot of the movements in silat are good for the hips and the spine. So when you’re doing ground-based movements like you see in harimau (tiger) techniques, you’re not only practicing fighting but also working on preserving your mobility and getting a great workout.

Some people hate having to get up and down all the time and say that nobody sits with their butts on the ground to fight. What if you get knocked down and still have to fight, or what if you trip or slip in a situation where you still need to defend yourself? Fighting isn’t just going to happen in the ranges or positions you’re most comfortable with, so you have to familiarize yourself with the widest range of possibilities.

Black Belt: Would it be fair to say that the usefulness of different moves and training methods can change according to the context?

Dan Inosanto: Definitely — like the sinawali (double-stick drills in kali) when we do the “umbrella” combinations. I used to not like doing the umbrella with the full range of motion until I couldn’t do it without effort or pain. That’s when the words of the old men made more sense.

They used to say that the double-stick training was “magical.” I didn’t get it until I started seeing how a lot of those striking patterns can actually heal the body. These days, you’ve got famous physical therapists like Gray Cook teaching people Indian-club exercises to help rehab shoulder problems. We’ve pretty much got those movements and patterns in the kali double-stick work.

Part 2

The Black Belt Hall of Famer and jeet kune do authority reveals his secrets for staying fit to fight forever!

Black Belt: Speaking of kali, you’ve also mentioned that even the fearsome Floro Villabrille had some movements that looked like tai chi in his curriculum.

Dan Inosanto: Yes, some of those moves and exercises that we used to think had nothing to do with fighting actually had everything to do with fighting the aging process. If we just practice them consistently, they help keep the joints of the shoulders and hands healthy so we have the ability to hold the stick or grab without degenerative changes or pain. When you’re young, you don’t think about things like that. You just feel sore, your body adapts and then you go on training. You don’t really think about some of those aches and pains until one day you can’t ignore them anymore.

Black Belt: Do any of those aches and pains come from contact injuries?

Dan Inosanto: We used to think that hard contact was necessary for good training. But if you’re just banging like that all the time without the precision finesse work, your body’s not going to let you keep doing that. People need to learn how to listen to their bodies, especially as they age, and they need to learn how to train smart.

Back in the day, people trained without safety equipment because they didn’t have the technology. These days, we have almost every advantage as far as safety [goes]. Don’t you think it’s counterintuitive to train without taking advantage of that? For those people who argue that it’s better to train without safety gear like padded sticks or blunted knives or protective sparring equipment simply because that would be more traditional, then by that logic, they should give up their cars and their cellphones and their toilets for horses, smoke signals and outhouses because that’s more traditional.

If you’re an older martial artist, it’s silly to take senseless risks just to float your ego.

Black Belt: Doesn’t that fly in the face of some of what jeet kune do’s full-contact philosophy stands for?

Dan Inosanto: Yes and no. Even back in the 1960s and ’70s, we were already using protective equipment. But there’s something more that people have to understand about JKD. Bruce died at 32. He was at the prime of his life — according to some people, he hadn’t even reached his prime yet! So he died without ever having to face the reality of an aging body. Had he lived, I’m pretty sure his philosophy … and his teaching and training methods would have evolved because he was always evolving.

What a lot of people don’t realize is that Bruce Lee, in a lot of ways, was still a traditionalist and kept a lot of stuff to himself. While people think he was anti-forms, he was still the best forms man I’ve seen to this day. Whether it was buk pai (northern style) kung fu or the tai chi he learned from his father, he still practiced it enough to retain the sequence of the moves and the flavor of the sets. I think that kind of precision movement training added a lot to the beauty of his movement.

Black Belt: What does your workout regimen look like these days?

Dan Inosanto: I have basically two kinds of workouts: the workouts I get when I’m taking lessons, like when I’m taking a private lesson with my pradal serey (Cambodian kickboxing) coach, with my systema teacher Martin Wheeler or with any of my BJJ teachers; and the workouts I have on my own.

The workouts that someone else takes me through go at the speed and intensity they dictate. So I tend to get pushed more in those sessions. It’s great because I get to learn, but I also get to let someone else decide what I need to do. On one hand, I have to hope they don’t push me so hard that I get injured, but on the other hand, most of the people I work with these days are at that skill level as instructors that they know how to tailor-make the training session to push me without breaking me. That’s a skill that not every instructor has.

During the workouts I do on my own, I really go by feel. It’s not bound to a particular format or framework. Sometimes I start with some strength work — maybe kettlebell swings or squats. Sometimes I start with time on the foam roller. I just try to listen to what my body is asking me for that day.

If one of my close students whom I can train with is around, I might work on drills with him until I feel like changing the pace. There isn’t a particular time frame or program, either. It’s organic. That doesn’t mean it’s lazy, though. There are so many different skill sets to choose from, but I just move at the speed and intensity that my body is asking for. That way, my body is usually happy after I finish a session.

Black Belt: What advice do you have for people who want to be able to keep training as they get older?

Dan Inosanto: Don’t give up and keep moving. When you stop moving, your body starts locking up on you. You know that old saying “If you don’t use it, you lose it”? It’s true. Let me add one more bit to that:

If you don’t work to improve it, you’ll lose it, too. If you don’t work on maintaining your range of motion and take it for granted, you might wake up one morning and not be able to use it without strain or pain. So the best policy is to deal with it before you get to that point.

I’m not saying it’s bad to rest or take some downtime, but we can’t let ourselves spend lots of hours on our butts. Sitting for too long locks up the hips, and then your lower back is going to have problems when your hips get tight. You’ve got to move at the level that your body is ready to allow, but you also have to keep working on preserving or improving that level all the time.

Also, working on being able to move around on the ground and to go from standing to the ground and back to standing is so important for your health. Lots of older martial artists might have had awesome breakfalls when they were younger, but as they get older and more established, they stop — and then they lose the ability to fall and regain their positioning with confidence. That’s why I’m enjoying my aikido training with Haruo Matsuoka.

There’s always something to improve on. There’s always something to learn and explore.

Interview by Dr. Mark Cheng • Photos by Ian Spanier

Stoic – Life Is Change. Change Is Good.

So something just ended. Maybe it was a job, or a book, or a stint in a certain city. Maybe your schooling has wrapped up. Maybe a relationship ran its course. Maybe whatever.

The point is, you are dealing with change. Why does that make you feel so sad? It’s because what you’re feeling is grief.

“When we cease from activity, or follow a thought to its conclusion,” Marcus Aurelius said, “it’s a kind of death. Think about your life: childhood, boyhood, youth, old age. Every transformation a kind of dying.”

Life is change. Life is death. That basically sums up Stoicism.

We can’t fear change or death. “Was that so terrible?” Marcus reflected on the changes he experienced in life. No, it wasn’t. Nor have been the vast majority of changes you’ve experienced in your own life. You accepted them, even embraced them. You understand that they were inevitable. You were grateful for what came before, or took solace in what came after.

Well, you can do the same for this change right now. No one has the power to keep things the same, just as no one has the power to stay alive forever. We can’t resist. We can only accept. Is that so terrible?

Collection – Chemicals and capital markets: Refocusing on the fundamentals

By Obi Ezekoye, Alexander Klei, Chantal Lorbeer, and Jeremy Redenius

Full link: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/chemicals/our-insights/chemicals-and-capital-markets-refocusing-on-the-fundamentals?cid=other-eml-alt-mip-mck&hdpid=3b9680a5-b6f9-423b-9b58-f74db51f3eec&hctky=2618809&hlkid=ce9185a46d02457fa5331303ff923119

The sector has lagged behind the market over the past five years. Our research shows that the basics—ROIC performance and revenue growth—are the metrics investors reward most.

By the end of 2019, the global chemical sector had delivered $550 for every $100 invested in 2001, outperforming the broader market by about $200. But during the past five years, its performance has faltered, despite a short-lived rebound in 2017. To help chemical companies regain traction in capital markets around the world, we conducted extensive new research to identify what investors really value. Our findings show that CEOs should focus on ROIC and growth, which—as corporate-finance theory teaches, and our research bears out—remain the fundamentals of value creation.

In this article, we explain what separates outperformers from underperformers across chemical subsectors as well as the best-rewarded aspects of performance. In addition, we detail how management teams should navigate this year’s challenges—including COVID-19 and oil-market discontinuities—to maximize the capital-market performance of their companies.

A glance back at the golden age

From 2000 to 2019, the chemical sector outperformed capital markets as a whole by about three percentage points a year (Exhibit 1). Three factors explain this success. The first is the massive growth of chemical demand in emerging markets, particularly China, which created tailwinds both for established global players and local companies trying to reach scale. The second is a substantial ROIC improvement among specialty-chemical companies from 2000 to 2011, resulting from their disciplined work on functional excellence and moves to maintain and strengthen their position in the value chain. Finally, the new availability of low-cost and unconventional feedstocks, particularly shale gas in the United States, helped raise margins significantly from 2009 to 2014.

Exhibit 1

Over that same period, the sector’s valuation, as measured by the multiple of enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EV/EBITDA), increased faster than the broader market’s valuation. The gap narrowed from approximately 10 percent at the start of the millennium to near parity at the end of 2019. Despite these positive long-term trends, the sector’s momentum in capital markets has faltered: from 2015 to 2019, it underperformed by 2.5 percentage points a year.

Which aspects of chemical-company performance do capital markets most reward?

To understand this reversal of fortune, we analyzed the drivers of value creation to identify what investors want most. Our research used a statistical approach to analyze the financial data of some 450 chemical companies around the world over the past 20 years (see sidebar, “Our methodology”).

Corporate-finance theory predicts that higher ROIC and faster growth will drive higher total returns to shareholders (TRS). The chemical sector is no exception. What might surprise many observers is the factors that did not show up as significant. After accounting for the differences arising from ROIC and growth, we found that many factors typically regarded as important for investors—such as a company’s specialty-versus-commodity profile and geographic regions of activity—did not significantly affect shareholder value. Thus, chemical leaders should focus on how these factors drive ROIC and growth, not as ends in themselves.

Exhibit 2

Most observers of the sector know that the upward trend in its ROIC has contributed to its strong capital-market performance earlier in this century. Our multivariate regression model for ROIC and TRS shows that during the time frame we studied, a company that had a one-percentage-point advantage in ROIC over another company with similar performance in all other respects had the same advantage in TRS.

The effects compound every year as long as this difference persists: a company with a one-percentage-point-higher ROIC performance compared with another company would have a one-percentage-point-higher TRS performance. Although that difference may seem minor, the math of compounding means that the first company would deliver returns almost 20 percent higher over a decade (comparing companies with 7 versus 6 percent annual returns). The same model shows that a chemical company with a one-percentage-point-higher growth rate compared with another company would have an approximately 0.2 percent higher TRS (Exhibit 2). Again, the company with the higher growth rate would widen the difference in TRS performance every year.

This analysis suggests that improving the ROIC of chemical companies has a bigger impact on their value than faster revenue growth. The reason is the sector’s relatively low average ROIC, approximately 9 percent, compared with a weighted cost of capital in the high single digits. At such a low spread for the cost of capital, higher ROIC has a larger impact on value than growth at low returns, both in theory and in our data set. In fact, investors distinguish between the value of growth at high and low ROIC levels. As theory predicts, at around 20 percent ROIC, investors in chemical companies recognize that growth creates value and start to expect rising growth rates from strong performers. At this high ROIC level, a one-percentage-point increase in growth yields an annual TRS improvement of 0.6 percentage points. By contrast, higher ROIC no longer significantly raises value (Exhibit 3).

Exhibit 3

Investors in chemical companies could also have a number of other reasons for valuing ROIC more than growth. Long-established research¹ shows that a strong competitive advantage tends to drive ROIC in a durable way, though revenue growth tends to be less defendable. But there is a complication for the chemical sector: revenue growth can vary significantly as a result of fluctuations in input costs—for example, variation in the price of crude oil, which much of the petrochemical sector relies on as feedstock. Furthermore, our analysis does not differentiate between organic and inorganic revenue growth.

Investors in chemical companies could also have a number of other reasons for valuing ROIC more than growth.

We also found that ROIC was a better indicator of value creation than EBITDA margins alone, since investors notice how capital is used. When we divided ROIC into its components—earnings over capital—we saw that EBITDA margins drove TRS less significantly than ROIC did and that higher capital intensity² was a drag on TRS. Finally, investors cast a more critical eye on investments in M&A. The TRS drag from acquisitions-related increases in capital intensity³ was even stronger.

What investors value: Lessons for management teams

After a strong run from 2001 to 2014, the chemical sector’s TRS has underperformed the broader market since 2015. Over the earlier period, the sector’s key value driver, ROIC, increased faster than that of the broader market (Exhibit 4). Revenue growth was also slightly faster for chemicals. Since 2015, however, the sector’s ROIC has declined while the broader market’s ROIC continued to increase. Meanwhile, growth slowed in the sector, and these deteriorating metrics led its TRS to underperform.

Exhibit 4

Yet over the past two years, some companies in certain chemical subsectors have done markedly better than other companies in those same subsectors: for instance, we see a seven-percentage-point difference in the ROIC of top- and bottom-quartile performers in specialty chemicals, an eight-percentage-point difference in base chemicals, and a nine-percentage-point difference in diversified chemicals. As for revenue growth, the spread between the top- and bottom-quartile performers in these three subsectors is ten, 12, and eight percentage points, respectively.

What differentiates the outperformers in each subsector? Clearly, many factors drive ROIC improvements and revenue growth. Some, such as oil prices or currency developments, are beyond the control of chemical companies. But they can position themselves in growing, profitable markets by managing their portfolios actively and using levers such as operational excellence, operating models, and talent to establish winning positions.

Endowment effects can be important as well: in base chemicals, for instance, winners had strong exposure to emerging markets or access to advantaged feedstocks. But poor execution can squander these benefits, so management teams cannot ignore functional excellence. In general, they should focus primarily on assuring a healthy balance between supply and demand, increasing their companies’ exposure to growing markets, and accessing the most advantaged feedstocks in value chains. Companies that boosted their ROIC and revenue growth by riding these positive tailwinds outperformed their less effective peers—again showing that the chemical sector’s experience confirms the fundamentals of value creation. Likewise, endowment effects mattered a great deal in specialty chemicals: the most successful players were active in particularly attractive subsegments, such as agriculture or paints and coatings, and focused on ROIC.

Innovative business models, including capital-efficient growth, have been another model for success. A number of successful specialty players, for example, pushed the more capital-intensive synthesis steps to upstream suppliers and focused on formulation and distribution in their respective subsectors, which helped their ROIC performance.

For some observers, the basic rule of value in chemical subsectors is encapsulated by the long-established adage that “specialty chemicals make money, basic chemicals make money, but diversified companies struggle.” Yet underperformance by diversified companies is no law of nature: they too show a wide distribution in performance. The strongest of these companies provide valuable lessons: they reshaped their portfolios over time, improved their ROIC, and oriented themselves toward faster-growing end markets and geographies. As the wide variation in performance shows, the type of chemical company—base or specialty—matters less than its ability to execute.

Exhibit 5

How should management teams think about COVID-19 and other challenges of 2020?

The chemical sector has delivered about 7 percent TRS year to date and fully recovered from its March 2020 lows (Exhibit 5). Here again, it is important to take a granular view at the subsector level. Overall growth in demand for chemicals has been muted, but some applications (such as biocides) grew at record rates. What’s more, we cannot ignore the impact of capital structure on TRS during a major downturn: in our data set, the TRS of companies with the highest debt-to-equity ratios fell hardest because of debt’s amplifying nature on TRS and liquidity concerns.

As economies start to reopen from the COVID-19 pandemic, management teams should focus on a number of insights from this and previous crises. First and foremost, they must act appropriately to keep their employees, vendors, suppliers, and other stakeholders safe. Second, they should pressure-test their business-continuity plans. Third, they ought to prepare a number of scenarios to understand how performance might unfold and which moves each of them will require. Fourth, companies with a relatively strong cash position might use the crisis to seize opportunities: our research shows that the companies that proved resilient in the 2009–11 global financial crisis acted boldly and decisively to turbocharge their strategies and improve their functional performance.

---

Our deep dive into the drivers of performance in capital markets shows once again that strategic moves must improve the fundamentals of a business to be recognized by investors. To create value, chemical companies should therefore return to the basics—ROIC and revenue growth—since other common metrics do not provide true guidance. Higher multiples, for example, do not really show that a company has created value: they merely indicate the value investors expect it to create. What investors in chemical companies really want to see is better ROIC, and only when it is at a high level do they also focus on growth. They simply do not care, for example, about rebalancing portfolios to emphasize specialties unless that strategy increases ROIC and growth. This is the lesson not only of theory but also of our recent research.

Landscape – How China is changing and what it means for its economy

Author: Editorial Board, ANU

Full link: https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2020/12/14/how-china-is-changing-and-what-it-means-for-its-economy/?utm_source=subscribe2&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=postnotify&utm_id=318343&utm_title=How%20China%20is%20changing%20and%20what%20it%20means%20for%20its%20economy

For most Chinese, the Spring Festival of 2020 is one they’ll never forget. The holiday began as normal, with hundreds of millions travelling back to their hometowns to celebrate the lunar new year. But the country came to a standstill after 23 January, when the Chinese government locked down the city of Wuhan, the epicentre of a novel coronavirus outbreak, and implemented stringent travel restrictions and lockdowns across the country.

COVID-19 has spotlighted the importance of China’s ascendance in global affairs like no other event. The response of China’s health system in the early days of the pandemic had international repercussions. China’s nationwide lockdown proved effective in containing the disease, in contrast with many Western democracies later on. China’s energetic ‘mask diplomacy’ created geopolitical waves that are only likely to grow in coming months as ‘vaccine diplomacy’ steps up in the developing world. China and the United States sparred over global governance at the World Health Organization.

The global catch cry is about China’s ‘change’ and its impact around the world. Chinese President Xi Jinping hails a ‘new era’ that will see China ‘become powerful’ and achieve ‘national rejuvenation’ within the framework of a ‘community of common destiny’.

In the latest issue of East Asia Forum Quarterly, edited by Neil Thomas and Jiao Wang, and launched today, Chinese and international experts explore how China is changing and the political, military, technological, environmental and strategic dimensions of that change.

Since assuming China’s political leadership in late 2012, Xi has strengthened the hold of the CCP over Chinese government and society. He’s modernised the army and the state like none of his predecessors. Xi is seen as the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. Partly because of political propaganda in China, Xi is cast as the author of all things good thus framing him, especially abroad, as the author of most things bad.

Although not all that other countries worry about in their relations with China is in Xi’s control, his strengthening of the country’s authoritarian characteristics has made others more wary about engagement. Political antagonism towards China in the United States was given full vent under the Trump administration. Beijing can no longer assume a global political environment as conducive as it may have been in the past to China’s rise, and the country’s success appears to depend increasingly on the quality and the realisation of Xi’s domestic agenda.

Despite the US–China trade war and political pushback, Xi’s policies have delivered some progress. China’s ambitions to become a high-income country with a growth model ordered around consumption, innovation and sustainability are still on track despite the COVID-19 shock. But how might they be affected by the economic changes that China now confronts?

In our first lead article from EAFQ this week , David Dollar sees three structural challenges to sustainable Chinese economic growth in the years ahead. The first is China’s rapidly aging population. Relaxation of the country’s population control policies has not produced a baby boom. Robots and automation may help boost the productivity of China’s shrinking workforce, but Dollar sees that improved access to education, healthcare, and other social services are vital — especially in rural China.

Technology and innovation will be central to productivity-led growth and the threat of technology decoupling that China now faces makes domestic acquisition of technological capability a top priority. China’s innovation outputs are far less impressive, however, than its innovation inputs, as Dollar says, and industrial policy that focuses too much on picking winners is unlikely to succeed in boosting domestic innovation. If it is to realise the ‘China dream’, China needs to focus more on the foundations of innovation: intellectual property rights protection, venture capital, universities and general subsidies to R&D.

The deterioration of the international environment, which benefited China’s rise during an era of globalisation and global exchange, is the third major challenge. Fixing a badly fractured international economic system means there will have to be significant give and take between the United States and China — and that seems like a large ask, even with the advent of a new administration in the United States.

How is Beijing responding to these formidable challenges? In the second lead article this week, Yao Yang describes the key priorities set out in preparatory documents for the Chinese government’s 14th Five Year Plan (2021–2025).

Top of the list is technological independence. This priority is no surprise, given US moves to impose trade and technology exchange sanctions on major Chinese tech companies and research institutes. Other countries have been following the United States in pursuing policies that will limit trade, investment and exchanges with Chinese players in apex industries like semiconductors.

Also high on the list is China’s new approach to the urbanisation of its population, fairer provision of social welfare to reduce urban–rural disparities and greener production. As the COVID-19 crisis subsides, the next five years will be critical to China’s future. These four priorities are China’s first response to the changing economic and geopolitical landscape.

The 14th Five Year Plan is a continuation of existing policies to shift from external to internal drivers of sustainable growth. But vulnerability to technology decoupling is now a major problem and the new strategy of ‘dual circulation’ signals an acceleration of the strategic shift towards domestic circulation to achieve what is called a more ‘autonomous’ economy.

Technology decoupling imposes large costs on China but it also imposes large costs on US technology firms and on both societies. It can’t be taken for granted that China and the United States will become enemies and continue along the path of wholesale decoupling. Both countries have an interest in cooperation on international public goods such as climate change which, to succeed, will involve more trade as well as technology exchange.

What path is chosen — retreat to ‘autonomous’ development and insularity or remaking the rules and building confidence in multilateral re-engagement — will affect the trajectory of both Chinese and global growth and sustainability over many decades ahead.

The EAF Editorial Board is located in the Crawford School of Public Policy, College of Asia and the Pacific, The Australian National University.

Note – Blooloop’s Weekend News Roundup

In the news

Disney & Universal veteran Steve Tatham launches own consultancy

Manchester attractions for 2021: from I’m a Celebrity to new RHS gardens and a host of new tourism developments

Nintendo to hold live stream sneak peek of Super Nintendo World

Will Disney’s Bob Iger become US ambassador to China?

Interspectral celebrates opening of the first state science museum in Ukraine

Event Network opens museum store at The National Museum of the United States Army

Simtec Systems receives Asia Attractions Golden Crown Awards in two categories

Mecanoo unveils vision for Maritime Centre to be built on – and under – Rotterdam’s Rijnhaven

BBC’s new Radiophonic Travel Agency offers interactive sonic journeys for armchair travellers

Cloward H2O celebrates success of Beijing Aquarium more than 20 years on

Digital Projection lights up French château for Christmas

Falcon’s Creative Group presents SpectraVerse attractions

Legacy Entertainment celebrates award-winning Shanghai Haichang Ocean Park

Developer sought for abandoned Six Flags New Orleans theme park

Cityneon to bring historical artefacts exhibition to the world in 2021

Only 2 hospitality groups in WSJ top 100 sustainable companies list

$440m takeover of Australia’s Village Roadshow approved

Disneyland Resort launches Incredibles PSA COVID-19 campaign for California

Pico Play creates Big Octopus for Ripley’s Believe It or Not! Surfers Paradise

THEME3 creates and operates Christmas Light Trail for Warwick Castle

Scruffy Dog Creative Group joins the OCT Alliance of Planning and Design

Longhorn Organics partners with Houston Zoo on Galapagos expansion

Children’s Museum of Manhattan (CMOM) finds new home in former NYC church

£175m extension to Kunsthaus Zurich by Chipperfield completed

Parramatta Powerhouse reveals plans for huge high tech immersive exhibition space

DOF Robotics appoints Ahmet Enes Aladas as Chief Commercial Officer

Drone Interactive raises €1 million to finance launch of ARCADRONE

WhiteWater celebrates 40th anniversary

ProSlide launches new WaterKINGDOM water rides and aquatic play

Legoland Florida theme park plans 4.5 acre Project Venus expansion

Self-driving vehicles launch at Wuhan’s Longlingshan Ecological Park

Plans for Docking the Amsterdam underwater museum revealed by ZJA

Black Country Living Museum world’s most popular museum on TikTok

D-BOX Technologies & Cooler Master partner to create immersive haptic gaming chair

In depth

Qiddiya: The Saudi giga-project with Philippe Gas MORE
7 ways Disney robots will revolutionise theme parks MORE
Dinosaur adventures at the Royal Tyrrell Museum MORE
Rookburgh – Phantasialand’s new themed world MORE
ProSlide’s 2020 was the ‘Year of WaterKINGDOM’ MORE
DreamWorks Water Park dares to dream big MORE
RideHOUSE – ProSlide’s flagship WaterKINGDOM MORE
From KIDS to ICONS: ProSlide delivering for every age MORE
ProSlide’s philosophy of aquatic play MORE
The 18 best new themed attractions for 2021 MORE
Soaky Mountain’s WaterKINGDOM take

Note – McKinsey: Can global health be transformed? The bio revolution says yes

This week, how advances in biological science could transform economies and societies. Plus, our experts on how to talk through complex feelings at work, and the Financial Times and McKinsey Business Book of the Year, just in time for your holiday reading. And speaking of the holidays, the Shortlist team is taking a break until January. We wish all our readers a happy and healthy new year.

All systems go. Advances in biological science, computing, automation, and artificial intelligence are fueling a new wave of innovation. This bio revolution could have a significant effect on economies and our lives, from global health and agriculture to consumer goods and energy and materials.

Changing the course of disease. A recent McKinsey Global Institute report estimates that current bio innovations could relieve 1 to 3 percent of the total global burden of disease within the next two decades. Although seemingly small, that range would be roughly analogous to the global percentages of lung cancer, breast cancer, and prostate cancer combined. And over a longer period, if the full potential of today’s technologies is realized, we could confront 45 percent of the world’s disease burden.

Genome sequencing. COVID-19 vaccines traveled through development at groundbreaking speeds. We can thank the bio revolution for that too—scientists sequenced the coronavirus genome in just weeks using tools that act as DNA “micro-scissors.” CRISPR-Cas9, for example, can switch off disease-causing or mutated versions of genes, delete gene fragments, insert new genes, and repair genes to achieve favorable outcomes.

Applications beyond healthcare. McKinsey examined 400 cases of scientifically feasible bio technologies that could go commercial by 2050. More than half of these innovations will have an impact outside of health—specifically in agriculture and consumer goods. It may sound like sci-fi now, but these applications will seep into day-to-day life as early as the next few decades. Imagine wearing clothing with bioengineered fabrics that mimic natural fibers, applying genetically personalized skin treatments, and consuming lab-grown meats and climate-resistant crops.

Getting the right stakeholders on board. The real challenge here is moving applications of bio technologies to the market. Science-based start-ups typically don’t have the resources to commercialize their innovations. The challenge will be how to scale to industrial levels and monetize the sheer volume of genetic data collected. Smaller science companies may need to partner with larger, more established players to navigate commercialization together.

With innovation comes risk. Just like the digital revolution, the bio revolution will present a similarly broad host of ethical questions. Will the self-replicating and self-sufficient nature of biology permanently change or damage ecosystems? Will privacy and consent guidelines be standardized? Will cheap and accessible biotechnologies be abused if they fall into the wrong hands? A broad coalition of stakeholders—including government entities—will need to gain scientific literacy to address these risks. The range and scope of the bio revolution’s impact will depend in large part on societal attitudes.

Lots to look forward to. An estimated 60 percent of physical inputs to the global economy are biologically produced or could be in the near future: a huge win for sustainability. The 400 biotechnology cases that McKinsey examined—which did not even count future innovations—could have a direct economic impact of $4 trillion per year over the next two decades. With these gains, a healthier future is on the horizon.

Annual global banking review: A test of resilience

Global banks have provisioned $1.15 trillion for loan losses through the third quarter of 2020, much more than they did for all of 2019. Banks have not yet had to take substantial write-offs, but few expect this state of suspended animation to last. We project that loan-loss provisions in the coming years will exceed those of the Great Recession. The good news—at least for banks and the financial systems that societies rely on—is that the industry is sufficiently capitalized to withstand the coming shock.

Working parents’ worries go way beyond childcare when the pandemic closes schools

the Shortlist

Note – Fisher: What to Make of Recent Chinese Defaults?

By Austin Fraser

Full link: https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/marketminder/what-to-make-of-recent-chinese-defaults?fiut=p

Though defaults may continue, a systemic debt crisis remains unlikely.

For years, a conundrum has confronted investors and Chinese officials alike: How do you move to a more market-oriented system if it means state-owned enterprises (SOEs) lose their implicit government guarantee and are allowed to default, fanning fears of a debt crisis?

That problem took center stage again lately following over a dozen defaults by SOEs this year alone. One striking example occurred a little over a month ago, when local SOE Yongcheng Coal & Electricity defaulted on a $150 million AAA-rated issue—a credit rating that clearly stemmed from the perception of government backing. Interestingly, Yongcheng appeared to have enough cash to cover the note, but it transferred major assets to other SOEs without compensation a week prior, ostensibly to hide them from creditors. Thus, the events suggested SOEs could dictate default on their terms, making it more difficult for markets to assess credit risk, which runs counter to the purpose of allowing default. That compounds questions about local governments’ blanket support of local SOEs. With local SOE bonds accounting for 60% of China’s onshore market, the circumstances understandably spooked investors and aggravated long-standing fears of a debt crisis. However, while there are important takeaways from the development, the response from Beijing, its policy priorities and the relatively small scale suggests systemic risks remain minimal. 

There are two primary risks related to broader credit events. The first, and most immediate, surrounds liquidity: Do banks have access to funds on a short-term basis to roll over their obligations? In the days after the default, one-year interbank rates jumped to nearly twice that of earlier this year.^[i] In response, the People’s Bank of China quickly intervened to calm nerves, injecting $30 billion in one-year loans with the promise it would conduct another medium-term lending operation on December 15 to roll over maturing loans for the month. In the weeks since, liquidity measures have stabilized.

The second risk concerns solvency, or the quality of balance sheets. What is the scale of bad debt held across the financial system? This is the oft-cited fear surrounding Chinese debt levels given the opacity of its government-run financial system and suspiciously low non-performing loan ratios. But while headlines scream crisis, defaults as a percentage of total corporate bonds outstanding remain small. For example, according to Goldman Sachs research, private enterprise defaults have accounted for 3.5%, while SOE defaults only 0.5%.

That may not seem to address future concerns, as there now appears to be more tolerance for defaults from Beijing and local governments. In a mature developed market like the US, a wave of defaults wouldn’t be good news, but in China, it signals some broader, positive shifts. From a policy perspective, allowing SOEs to default is wise—letting bad firms go bust is a crucial component to appropriately pricing risk. Yet the government’s primary goal remains retaining control, which requires maintaining economic and social stability. That suggests officials will closely manage systemic risks. Yongcheng’s debt was quickly rescheduled and extended. In a bigger context, Evergrande—a large property developer recently facing a liquidity squeeze—secured $4.6 billion from state-linked companies to shore up its finances. The local SOE market will have to regain some trust after these events, but they likely do not have material market-wide significance.

More broadly, these developments fit into an ongoing theme of financial discipline promoted by Beijing. In the past several years, the government addressed debt concerns by forcing deleveraging while cracking down on shadow bank lending. As a result, credit growth decelerated notably. Its return this year is probably temporary, part of the broader effort to cushion the economy from the pandemic. Expecting the government to guide it down for 2021 is reasonable, in my view. Moreover, the recent high-profile cancellation of Ant Financial’s IPO and subsequent strengthening of fintech regulatory requirements shows the government has potentially learned from its prior experiences. Higher capital requirements and oversight of a growing—and potentially massive—financial base should promote future stability, assuming the government is not overly heavy-handed. It is all consistent with a measured policy response that balances stability with growth and very long-term market-oriented change.

---

[i] “China Funding Squeeze at Small Banks Is Warning Sign for Market,” Tian Chen, Bloomberg, 11/30/2020.

Note – AngelList: Making cities smarter

Startups help municipalities optimize

There’s an ongoing debate whether humans have reached “peak intelligence.” But there’s little doubt our cities are getting smarter each year, spurred by technology innovation. 

Anywhere you look in a city — from trash pickup to transportation to policing (more on that in a bit) — you’re likely to find a tech startup working to optimize the experience. 

Here are some examples:

Utilities

Denmark-based Novalume offers a street lighting solution for smart city applications that helps municipalities manage their public lighting network and save energy. San Francisco-based Carbon Lighthouse, which offers a similar service for commercial building owners, has secured $36M in funding.

Atlanta-based Rubicon, the world’s first “trash unicorn” describes itself as the “Uber of trash pickup.” The company says it is working with 45 U.S. cities, including Chattanooga, to improve performance, reduce maintenance costs, and enhance residential and commercial sanitation service.

Another startup in the trash space, Boston-based Compology (they’re hiring), raised $38M. The platform monitors the fullness and content of trash and recycling containers at multi-family properties. Charlotte, N.C. recently announced it had saved $1.3M in waste costs using the company’s waste metering technology.

Transportation

The Routing Company, spun out of MIT’s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL), recently secured $5M in seed funding to build out its platform that helps cities manage public buses and other transportation. The company says its system can help cities improve the reach, efficiency, and sustainability of public transit. 

Carmera, a New York-based mapping and data analytics startup, raised $26.5M to develop high-definition maps for autonomous vehicle customers like automakers, suppliers and robotaxis to find the safest, most efficient routes. The company’s crowdsourced maps are in New York, San Francisco, Seoul, and Tokyo.

And speaking of robotaxis, Amazon subsidiary Zoox just unveiled its initial design. 

Policing

More controversially, cities also are working with startups to better deploy their police forces to where they are needed most.

One such startup, Santa Cruz-based PredPol offers a “predictive policing” software program that analyzes historical crime data and recommends areas in the city that are most likely to see crime over the next shift. 

Philadelphia-based Azavea offers a similar service, Hunchlab, that surveys past crimes and digs into factors like population density, census data, and even moon phases to flag areas for police attention. 

While our cities are undoubtedly getting smarter, how they deploy those smarts remains a relevant question.

Funding and acquisitions

Public, a social-focused free stock trading service, announced a $65M Series C led by Accel, bringing total funding to date to $90M. The company allows investors to own fractional shares of stocks and ETFs and offers them a place to discuss and execute trades for free. Public says its increased user base by a multiple of 10 since the start of the year. The startup intends to use its new capital to continue investing into product work, keeping its flywheel alive.

Squire, a startup that sells software to barbershops, raised $59M at a $250M valuation. Squire lets businesses schedule appointments, offer loyalty programs, and install contactless and cashless payment. The team says barbershop operations are more complex than other types of small businesses, requiring a custom approach.

Reddit acquired short-form video social platform Dubsmash. Under the terms of the deal, Dubsmash will continue as its own separate platform and its video creation tools will be integrated into Reddit. Terms were not disclosed. According to data from App Annie, Dubsmash’s share of the USA’s short-form video market is second only to TikTok. Reddit cited Dubsmash’s diverse user base as one of the reasons for its acquisition. According to Reddit, around 25% of Black teenagers in the U.S. use the service and 70% of its users are female.

Note – DealStreetAsia: The Week That Was

With 2021 barely two weeks away, our team has been busy putting together comprehensive stories cutting across markets and sectors looking back at what has been an unusual year, to say the least. We also look ahead at some early transformational trends, temporary and permanent changes to business models and asset allocations in the region as we inch towards the new year. First, our year-end specials and trend stories. From Indonesia, we had this piece on how the unicorns navigated this period. When the first signs of COVID-19 emerged, Indonesia’s unicorns had foreseen a busy year. Predictably, the past 12 months were relentless for the unicorns, who reviewed and re-calibrated their playbooks. Those who found themselves in a stable position during the year sought to seize newfound opportunities. As such, the experience of 2020 should put the companies in good stead for the coming years. In one of the most defining trends, again from Indonesia, numerous startups set the ball rolling on the digitalisation of micro, small, and medium enterprises in 2020. The startups aiding warungs, or mom-and-pop stores, evinced more investor interest than any other segment this year — 43 investors announced capital injection into this space. Deep-pocketed tech companies, too, showed an eager interest in this unfolding trend. Tracking Southeast Asia’s most resilient market, we had this piece on Vietnam-focused global and domestic private equity managers predicting a pickup in deal activity in 2021 after a lacklustre year, driven by the country’s strong economic fundamentals and the availability of abundant dry powder. Moving to the Philippines, we had this piece on how PE major KKR, which has already invested over $1 billion in the market, is bullish on long-term investment opportunities in the country. KKR’s investments in the Philippines represent 3 per cent of the firm’s total assets under management in Asia, the PE major’s Asia PE team director Neal Kok told us. KKR made two major investments in the country during the global healthcare crisis: It picked an 11.9 per cent stake in listed Philippine power developer First Gen Corp for $192.2 million in June and acquired an undisclosed stake in Pinnacle Towers in November. Myanmar, which has seen stable deal flows, is again a story of opportunities for long-term and patient investors, who are willing to overcome frontier market challenges. In a story with several voices from the early-movers in the investment scene, what emerges is that “fly-in-fly-out” doesn’t work in a market like Myanmar. Let’s switch gears to Southeast Asia’s seed-stage investment ecosystem, which has transformed dramatically in the last 10 years. Venture capital firms that began with modest seed funds now oversee portfolios amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars. We take a comprehensive look at how cut-throat competition at the Series A stage might actually result in SE Asian VCs capturing value at the seed stage. From Greater China, we tracked unlisted consumer brands that have caught the fancy of private investors who are capitalising on the burgeoning market. According to our proprietary data, consumer brands in China collectively mopped up $1.5 billion in financing across 80 investments between January and November 2020. We take a look at the trend of “consumption upgrade in China” driven by favourable demographics.

From unicorn land

Indonesia’s e-commerce giant Tokopedia has hired Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Inc. as advisers to help accelerate its plan to go public. The Jakarta-based company is considering the SPAC route as a potential option. Its statement came after reports of  Bridgetown Holdings, a blank-cheque company backed by billionaires Richard Li and Peter Thiel, considering a potential merger with Tokopedia. The SoftBank-backed firm could be valued at $8 billion to $10 billion in a transaction. For Tokopedia, a sale to a SPAC would be a speedier way to list in the US, Bloomberg reported.  Indonesian motorbike driver unions for ride-hailing and food delivery firms Grab and Gojek said they will kick off protests across the country if merger talks between the firms proceed without them, fearing it could result in mass job losses, Reuters reported. The driver union, Garda Nasional, has over 100,000 members, who called for government and driver involvement in the negotiations. We have been closely tracking the developments related to the merger talks between Southeast Asia’s two most valuable startups. In other news, Gojek has launched a point of sale device for micro, small, and medium enterprises in Indonesia. The new product will be an extension of Gojek’s merchant app GoBiz. The launch of the point of sale service comes roughly a year after Gojek acquired local mPOS startup Moka for a reported figure of around $130 million. Gojek has also picked up a 22 per cent stake in IDX-listed Bank Jago, formerly known as Bank Artos, through its payments and financial services arm GoPay for about $160 million. The partnership will allow Bank Jago to provide digital banking services through the Gojek platform.

Fundraising milestones

Australian venture capital firm Square Peg is ramping up its investments in Southeast Asia after closing its fourth VC fund at $450 million. The fundraising was led by Australian institutions HostPlus and AustralianSuper and backed by CBA and Roc Partners. The latest vehicle takes Square Peg’s total funds under management to over $1 billion. Vickers Vantage, a Singapore-based special purpose acquisition company formed by venture capital firm Vickers Venture Partners, has filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to raise about $100 million in an initial public offering. The $100 million, however, is a placeholder amount. L Catterton Asia partner Jun Wang is set to leave the private equity firm to pursue early-stage investments in the consumer sector in China. Wang is understood to be setting up an investment platform in the new year that will be supported by an external investor. Wang joined L Capital Asia in July 2010 and was part of the firm’s founding team. China’s Decheng Capital is raising $650 million for a new fund, Decheng Capital Global Life Sciences Fund IV. Decheng primarily invests in early-stage life science companies with revolutionary technologies and late-stage companies with a strong market presence. Fubon Life Insurance, the insurance unit of Taiwanese financial conglomerate Fubon Financial Holdings, is investing an aggregate of $130 million in two funds managed by Asia-focused private equity firm Hillhouse Capital Group. Chinese venture capital firm Befor Capital has raised $106.8 million in commitments across two funds to continue its investments in the consumption upgrade, advanced technology, and modern services fields. Malaysian boutique investment firm Emissary Capital has bagged $25 million from state-run firm Penjana Kapital for its growth fund Emissary Capital Growth Fund 1, which is seeking to raise $50 million in total. Japanese early-stage investor Genesia Ventures said it will be more proactive in Southeast Asia next year, with plans to allocate capital to both new and follow-on investments. Vietnam will be a focus market for the investor, which closed its $75-million second vehicle in October. Its portfolio firms include Docquity, Qoala, Bobobox, Logisly, BuyMed, and Manabie. That is all from us this week. Stay safe.

J Padmapriya Managing Editor, DealStreetAsia editor@dealstreetasia.com

Note – Bloomberg: The Weekly Fix: don’t put Powell in a corner

Uncomfortable or Coy?

Chairman Jerome Powell refused to be boxed in during the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting of 2020. The statement had a similar tone to those over the past few months: the economy is improving, but the next few months will be challenging. The majority of Fed officials see rates near zero at least through 2023. Inflation remains well below target.

But naturally, it was the future of the Fed’s asset purchasing program that got bond markets buzzing. Policy makers voted to maintain bond buying of at least $120 billion per month until they see “ substantial further progress” in employment and inflation, scrapping the previous pledge to continue purchases “over coming months.”

But as for what qualifies as “substantial,” Powell was coy. He told reporters at the press conference that he “can’t give you an exact set of numbers,” but that the economy was “some ways off” from reaching that point.

To Grant Thornton’s Diane Swonk, Powell’s demurring was masking deep divisions among committee members about how the central bank will gracefully disentangle itself from bond markets.

“It was the least possible guidance the Fed could offer in terms of asset purchases going forward. The Fed doesn’t know how it’s going to extricate itself from these purchases going forward,” said Swonk, Grant Thornton’s chief economist, in a Bloomberg TV interview. “You really saw the Fed chairman be extremely uncomfortable talking about that.”

Others disagree. Powell’s performance was one of a Fed chair simply trying to maintain optionality and avoid getting “painted in a corner,” according to Hirtle Callaghan & Co.’s Mark Hamilton. Rather than assign a numerical target for the unemployment rate or inflation readings and have markets fixate on the possibility that the Fed would scale back asset purchases when approaching that figure, being deliberately vague preserves flexibility for policy makers — and protects against the kind of market wobble seen in 2013.

“Think about the taper tantrum that they inadvertently triggered — they don’t want to do that,” said Hamilton. “What they’re trying to do is remind everybody that there’s a very deep hole there and we’re going to give the economy plenty of time to dig itself out, so we’re not going to focus on an end date or conditions for an end date.”

Also of note: there was no change to the composition of their asset buying, and policy makers declined to shift purchases toward the long-end of the curve. It was far from consensus that they’d venture out the curve, but there was some degree of speculation that they’d unveil some form of forward guidance along those lines.

But although it’s abundantly clear the U.S. labor market recovery has stalled and November retail sales were particularly ugly, the economy hasn’t deteriorated to the point where the Fed would need to pull the trigger.

“Financial conditions are extraordinarily easy,” said Mark Cabana, head of U.S. rates strategy at Bank of America, in a Bloomberg TV interview. There’s no reason for the Fed to take additional easing measures “when you’ve got equities at or near all time high, mortgage rates at or near lows, credit tight and flowing.”

Don’t Sweat Stock Valuations

But in maybe the most stunning moment from the press conference, Powell broke out a version of the so-called Fed model, which compares the S&P 500’s earnings yield to bonds. Powell posited that because risk-free rates of return are so low, stocks — which may look screamingly overvalued by some measures — perhaps aren’t as expensive as they appear.

“Admittedly P/Es are high, but that’s maybe not as relevant in a world where we think the 10-year Treasury is going to be lower than it’s been historically from a return perspective,” Powell said.

The Fed model is often cited by equity strategists and economists to justify lofty equity valuations. It’s not too often that a Fed chair engages in that exercise.

Currently, the S&P 500’s earnings yield — profit relative to share price — is about 2.5 percentage points higher than benchmark Treasury yields, implying that stocks are attractive relative to bonds. At the height of the dot-com bubble of the late 1990’s, the measure fell below -3 percentage points as 10-year Treasury yields flirted with 7%. Currently, they clock in at around 0.92%.

Citing the Fed model isn’t necessarily misguided, but it’s by no means a reason to be bullish on stocks, according to Richard Bernstein Advisors’s Dan Suzuki. Rather, it suggests that anemic bond returns could make so-so equity gains look appealing in comparison.

“Rates are low, partially because growth has been weak — hardly bullish. I think there’s significant risk that rates move higher over the next several years, which based on Powell’s logic should argue for incrementally lower valuations — also not bullish,” said Suzuki, the firm’s deputy chief investment officer. “What the Fed model is telling you is that those modest equity returns could turn out to be great relative to the returns you get from bonds.”

Riding a Junk Frenzy 

It was another monster week of junk bond issuance, putting this month on track to be the busiest December since at least 2006 in the high-yield market. With junk borrowing costs at record lows, it’s hard to resist. But in a sign of just how red-hot high-yield has become, the companies most-battered by the pandemic are leading the charge.

Norwegian Cruise Lines Holdings Ltd. was among the rush, borrowing on an unsecured basis — no cruise ships or other valuable assets pledged as collateral. Amazingly, the company targeted a yield of around 6.75% — roughly half the 12.575% it had to pay in May on a secured debt sale.

“We’re in this unique position with a lot of fallen angels in very challenging industries due to Covid — like the cruisers and airlines — that are accessing capital markets just in case,” said John McClain, a portfolio manager at Diamond Hill Capital Management Inc. “It’s kind of a rainy day fund.”

Such issues have been met with hearty demand, and for good reason. An index tracking U.S. fallen angels — debt rated investment grade that have been downgraded to junk — has surged roughly 43% since March’s low. Meanwhile, record amounts of cash have poured into exchange-traded funds tracking such securities.

A natural byproduct of such froth is renewed concerns over protections investors are receiving in debt deals — particularly in junk markets, where companies tend to be highly levered and credit quality is a more “immediate” concern, Hamilton said. He’s been avoiding high-yield in favor of investment-grade bonds and higher quality equities.

“An investor wants input over how much flexibility does this company have and make sure they’re not able to deteriorate the quality of the credit,” Hamilton said. “When you get into a market where terms are pretty easy — either people aren’t demanding covenants or they aren’t willing to grant them — you end up with something where you’ve less protection underneath you,” Hamilton said.

Of course, covenants concerns aren’t a new phenomenon, and creditor protections have long been a sticking point between lenders and issuers. But though covenant quality has been eroding for years, that trend has been exacerbated in some ways by a tumultuous 2020. Those brawls took on greater urgency during the summer months, and increasingly, more high-yield and leveraged loan deals are ‘covenant-lite’ and include scant safeguards.

The solution for Diamond Hill’s McClain has been to avoid debt deals where covenants “will be used against us,” as borrowers almost always have the upper hand.

“Covenants used to be written on cocktail napkins, and now they’re scribbled on toilet paper in crayon,” McClain said. “Issuers are 95% of the time in a stronger position than lenders because they pick when they come to market.”

Bonus Points

• Up Against Wall Street Bond Giants, Minority Firms Want More 
• The work-from-home boom is here to stay, but pay cuts are on the way
• Robinhood Markets will pay a $65 million fine to settle a probe into whether it properly informed clients it sold their stock orders